The division previews continue with the NL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2016, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2016. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Position Player WAR: 26.3
- Pitcher Total: 18.5
- Core Total: 44.8
The Dodgers boast the highest position player core WAR and the highest pitcher core WAR in the division. They trot out three players who posted 5+ WAR in 2016. One of them, Corey Seager, will play 2017 as a 23-year-old so, he is still on the way up. Clayton Kershaw rated at 6.5 WAR despite missing significant time with an injury. Justin Turner, who is older, might fall from that level, but still be an excellent player.
The Dodgers surround that great base with good players. There are no negative WARs in this core. It’s a great plan a few superstars and a lot of solid players. Los Angeles will be tough to beat in the NL West in 2017.
San Francisco Giants
- Position Player WAR: 22.7
- Pitcher Total: 17.0
- Core Total: 39.7
The Giants put together their own set of stars. While no one is at the level of Kershaw and Seager, five players in the current Giants core produced at least four WAR in 2016. There is some upside a Jarrett Parker slides into the lineup. He came to the majors late in his career, already in his prime, but that also means the Giants will get his best now.
There might even be upside with Matt Cain. The veteran former ace came in at zero WAR in 2016, but if he is healthy, he is certainly capable of more. The Giants should give the Dodgers a run for their money, and compete for a wild card berth.
Colorado Rockies
- Position Player WAR: 20.2
- Pitcher Total: 10.5
- Core Total: 30.7
The Rockies are a solid team. The core makes them look like an 80 win team, and it doesn’t take much more from the bench and the bullpen to put them in the high 80s and in wild card contention.
There is plenty of room for optimism, as full seasons from Trevor Story and David Dahl should improve the offense, and youngsters Germán Márquez and Kyle Freeland might improve the rotation. Eight more wins from that group of four and the Rockies are in the race for real.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Position Player WAR: 9.1
- Pitcher Total: 7.2
- Core Total: 16.3
Looking at the WAR of the core players on the Diamondbacks, the question that comes to my mind is how many of these players can bounce back. Can Zack Greinke get back to the five WAR level? Arizona is a tough place to pitch, and he may just give up lots of home runs as long as he plays half his games in Phoenix. Can David Peralta stay healthy and get back to a 3.0 WAR. Can Shelby Miller continue his up and down career with another three WAR season. Nine more WAR from those three players won’t make the Diamondbacks contenders, but they might win more than they lose. Otherwise, outside of Paul Goldschmidt, this is not a very exciting team.
San Diego Padres
- Position Player WAR: 10.5
- Pitcher Total: 2.8
- Core Total: 13.3
This has to be close to the worst pitching rotation I’ve seen going into a season. My dad would refer to them as ‘as beens. I assume they are place holders until the Padres next generation is ready to step into the rotation.
At least there is upside in the offense. Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe, and Austin Hedges are youngsters without much major league experience, so they have plenty of room to grow. Margot’s strength is getting on base, Renfroe’s strength is his power, and Hedges hits for a good batting average for a catcher. There’s a good chance the Padres don’t finish last in the division this season.
Probability of winning the division
- Los Angeles Dodgers 40%
- San Francisco Giants 30%
- Colorado Rockies 20%
- San Diego Padres 7%
- Arizona Diamondbacks 3%
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