The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays finished fifth in the American League and ninth in the majors in 2016 with 4.69 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That John Gibbons order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.09
Probable lineup: 5.02
Worst lineup: 4.82
Regressed lineup: 4.58
The LAT only agrees with the Gibbons lineup for the eight and nine slots. A number of the top lineups even agree on the bottom three hitters. Getting the worst hitters at the bottom of the order should matter.
Despite the large number of differences, the default lineup comes very close to the optimum lineup. I believe that is due to some similar parings. Both lineups have Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson batting back-to-back. Both lineups have Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki batting back-to-back.
The other takeaway is that the loss of Edwin Encarncion does not appear to have negatively impacted the offense. This should be a good one despite the slugger moving to Cleveland. Like the Nationals in the preceding Team Offense post, it looks like the Blue Jays might have a problem at first base with Justin Smoak. Again, these problems should be fairly easy to solve.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Cleveland Indians
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
- Washington Nationals
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