Sunday, March 26, 2017

Team Offense, Philadelphia Phillies

The 2017 series on team offense concludes with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies finished last majors in 2016 with 3.77 runs scored per game. They were about a quarter run worse per game than the 29th team.

I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Pete Mackanin order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Phillies in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):

Best lineup: 4.40
Probable lineup: 4.21
Worst lineup: 3.83
Regressed lineup: 4.05

The good news is that even the worst arrangement of the Phillies hitters should score more runs than the team did last season. The even better news is that the Phillies have some young hitters who look like they’ll post good OBPs. That gives fans hope for years to come.

The default lineup is actually pretty good. The LAT agrees on certain groupings and orderings. It likes Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph four and five, but in the opposite order. It likes the ordering of the Phillies bottom third, although it moves everyone up a slot to put the pitcher in the eight hole. Mackanin experimented with batting the pitcher eighth last season, and we’ll see if he does it again this year.

This is a Phillies offense on the way up. If they can bring along someone to improve on Howie Kendrick‘s slot they should move ahead of some teams this season.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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Previous posts in this series:



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