The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Washington Nationals. The Nationals finished fourth in the National League and eighth in the majors in 2016 with 4.71 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Dusty Baker order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Nationals in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.96
Probable lineup: 4.79
Worst lineup: 4.39
Regressed lineup: 4.43
The Marcels see Bryce Harper bouncing back from a sub-par 2016 to post a .399 OBP and a .510 slugging percentage. His superior OBP puts him in the lead-off slot for the LAT. Of course, since Harper’s stats have been a bit volatile, the Marcels may be way underestimating his power. He’s 7 for 21 with four home runs this spring, posting a .417 OBP. So there may be signs Harper got his stroke back. If you up Harper’s slugging percentage to .580, he moves to the second slot more, and there are top 20 lineups with Adam Eaton and Trea Turner batting 1-2. So the published RotoChamp lineup may not be far off.
However they are ordered, 1-6 in in the lineup will likely put up excellent OBPs. The bottom third will likely be weak with Ryan Zimmerman and the catchers. Of course, a first baseman not producing tends to be an easier problem to solve. Adam Lind would at least hit for power at the position.
Harper, Turner, and Anthony Rendon give the Nationals three great, young players. Provided the Nationals can keep Harper in the fold beyond 2018, those three should provide the basis for a solid offense for a very long time.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
Help support this series and the LAT by donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Cleveland Indians
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
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