Sunday, March 26, 2017

Team Offense 2017, Summary

With the data in place for the thirty teams, we can get an idea of how the projected lineups and the Musings Marcels projections see the 2017 season in terms of run scoring.

The Indians look like the best offense in the majors, moving up from fourth in 2016. The biggest move belongs to the Houston Astros. They go from 15th to second, while the Tigers are right on their heels, moving from 10th to third. The Yankees make a good jump as well, from 22nd to 11th.

The Cubs are projected to lead the NL once again, but only because they are capturing more of their optimum lineup than the Rockies.

The biggest falls belong to the Reds, going from 18th to 29th, and the Padres, going from 20th to 30th. Both teams are rebuilding, however, so there is going to be a lot of uncertainty. Most of the teams at the bottom of the list in 2016 stay near the bottom, although the Athletics move from 29th to 20th.

The Cardinals appear ripe for a big fall, as the projections have them going from 5th to 15th. They would, however, only fall from 3rd to 4th in the NL. The Mariners, on the other hand, fall from sixth to 13th overall, and third to ninth in the American League.

The mean runs scored of the probable lineup is 4.63 runs per game with a standard deviation of 0.32. Last season the majors averaged 4.48 runs per game. The probable lineups are really a best case scenario, where everyone stays healthy and plays to projections. The regressed runs per game column averaged 4.33 runs per game with a standard deviation of 0.21. I’d like to see the 4.48 mark beat this year.

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