The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners finished third in the American League and sixth in the majors in 2016 with 4.74 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Scott Servais order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.80
Probable lineup: 4.76
Worst lineup: 4.50
Regressed lineup: 4.41
Sometimes, when I’m filling in the numbers for the LAT, I wonder if a team actually used the tool to build their batting order. I was thinking that with this Mariners order until I got to Mike Zunino batting sixth with a .280 OBP and a .402 slugging percentage. I thought the LAT would put him lower.
My intuition was wrong. The Mariners and the LAT agree on the four-five-six slots and on the eight slot with Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Zunino, and Leonys Martin in those slots respectively. You also see Jarrod Dyson, followed by Jean Segura and Robinson Cano, but 9-1-2 instead of 1-2-3.
The end result is that the Mariners come very close to the optimum lineups. I suspect they might have better projections than the Marcels, which could easily flip a few slots. With the Marcels, they are 86.7% toward the top, and that’s impressive. It looks like the manager and front office is working hard to put the optimum lineup on the field.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2mrdMhz
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