Travis Sawchik notes how pundits and projections seem to be throwing out the book on small sample sizes when it comes to Gary Sanchez in the 2017 season:
Generally conservative projection systems forecast that Sanchez will be a star this season. ZiPS pegs Sanchez for 27 homers a 112 wRC+ and a 3.4 WAR season. PECOTA’s 70th percentile outlook has Sanchez recording 33 homers, a .504 slugging mark, and 4.8 wins. And the Fans’ average crowdsourced projection for Sanchez is a .274/.344/.488 slash line and 5.4 WAR season.
For the record, Musings Marcels puts Sanchez’s slash line at .286/.359/.554. Where the Marcels are conservative are in his count numbers. He projects to 315 PA, 80 hits, 16 doubles, and 19 home runs. Increase his PA to 500, and he would hit 30 home runs.
I suspect the projection systems are doing the best they can with the data. His Marcel numbers are dialed back from his 2016 numbers, plus an improvement due to his age (he will play 2017 as a 24 year old). Home runs rates were high last year, so that’s another reason not to regress his season too much.
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