The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Atlanta Braves. The Braves finished 14th in the National League and twenty eighth in the majors in 2016 with 4.03 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Brian Snitker order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, slot, I used the actual values for the Braves in 2016. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 4.49
Probable lineup: 4.24
Worst lineup: 3.84
Regressed lineup: 4.07
The Braves are opening a new park and want to put a competitive team on the field. They should be somewhat better offensively, but they don’t appear to have enough of an improvement in offense alone to make that leap.
One thing is that the youth hasn’t really arrived yet. Dansby Swanson is good and young, but going up and down the lineup there are a lot of 30 year old plus players. Freddie Freeman is just past the peak age of his career, and Ender Inciarte is just approaching it. Freeman may wind up being the veteran presence that leads the next generation, rather than the straw the stirs the drink if and when the younger talent arrives.
I would guess the first person to go would be Adonis Garcia. Rio Ruiz is old enough and experienced enough that he should be able to come to the majors and post a much better OBP than Garcia. Ruiz will play 2017 as a 23-year-old, so I assume the Braves will keep him down long enough so they can capture seven seasons from him under team control The will get his entire prime at a discount.
This isn’t a bad lineup. I would agree with the LAT that Brandon Phillips should bat lower in the order. What is going to be most interesting is how different this lineup looks in August.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
- Introduction
- Boston Red Sox
- Colorado Rockies
- Chicago Cubs
- Cleveland Indians
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Seattle Mariners
- Texas Rangers
- Washington Nationals
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Detroit Tigers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Baltimore Orioles
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Houston Astros
- Minnesota Twins
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Cincinnati Reds
- San Francisco Giants
- Chicago White Sox
- San Diego Padres
- New York Yankees
- Kansas City Royals
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Milwaukee Brewers
- New York Mets
- Miami Marlins
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