The 2017 series on team offense continues with the Cleveland Indians. The Indians finished second in the American League and fourth in the majors in 2016 with 4.83 runs scored per game.
I am using RotoChamp as a source of default lineups. That Terry Francona order is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results (Runs per game):
Best lineup: 5.33
Probable lineup: 5.21
Worst lineup: 5.02
Regressed lineup: 4.71
Those are the best numbers seen so far in all the categories. A lineup is pretty good if the worst batting order is projected to score over five runs per game. The addition of Edwin Encarnacion should be a boost to what was a very good offense. The LAT uses two constants in the top 20 lineups, Encarnacion batting fourth and Yan Gomes batting eighth. The Indians use Encarnacion in exactly the right spot.
The LAT likes Michael Brantley in the first slot, but I understand and agree with the Indians that he should bat lower in the order. He basically took the year off in 2016, and he seems to be a bit fragile. Batting lower in the order will bring him to the plate less, and he won’t feel the need to try to steal bases much. Once he shows he cans stay healthy and play at his former high level, the Indians may very well move him to the top of the order.
Note, too, that the spread between the best and worst Indians lineups is very small. It would appear that Francona, outside of injuries, doesn’t need to worry about the offense very much in 2017. It should be one of the best int he game.
You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.
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Previous posts in this series:
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