Tom Tango posts a series at FanGraphs on how to build WAR, taking input from readers how how to treat specific situations. Today is the Man on Third, One Out situation:
The worst time to strike out is with a runner on third base and less than 2 outs. In fact, it’s runner on 3B and exactly 1 out. The pitcher knows it, the batter knows it, the fielder knows it, the runner knows it. The fans know it. Everyone is extremely aware that getting the second out changes the entire dynamic of the situation, since now only a positive event can score that runner on third base.
Since batters and pitchers bear down more in the one out situation, I thought it would interesting to see who wins the battle:
| 2012-2015 | 3rd No Out | 3rd 2 Out | All other < 2 out situations |
|---|---|---|---|
| PA | 10615 | 27432 | 461026 |
| Hit Pct | 24.8 | 23.6 | 23.3 |
| BB Pct | 7.9 | 10.8 | 6.9 |
| SF Pct | 13.5 | 12.8 | ~0.0 |
| K Pct | 17.2 | 17.5 | 19.6 |
| Extra Bases/PA | .376 | .355 | .368 |
Comapring the one out to the zero out situation is a mixed bag. The pitchers do record a higher percentage of strikeouts and allow fewer sacrifice flies, but they also walk more batters, which forces them into the same situation. Overall, however, batters clearly win the SF situation. They strikeout much less, collect more hits and walks, and don’t lose much power. This makes me think the way to categorize the Kansas City Royals offense is that they always bat as if they are in an SF situation.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1OD1ENw
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