Sunday, February 21, 2016

Saving Santiago

Hector Santiago worked out this winter with his eye on better durability:

Last winter, the Angels lefty threw off a mound more than 20 times before spring training, a workload that is more than double what most pitchers do.

The result of his improved awareness of his mechanics was an All-Star selection.

However, now Santiago is thinking the extra work may have also resulted in his poor second half.

“I think it was a little bit of fatigue,” Santiago said. “Either physical or mental. … Obviously, something happened from the first half to the second. (This year) I’m maybe taking a little break and save that gas.”

Santiago said he had thrown only nine bullpen sessions before spring training this year, an effort to save more bullets to make it through six months of the regular season. He said he still threw as much and did the same workouts, but not from the mound.

Santiago held a 2.30 ERA through July 20th. Over his last 14 games he posted a 5.75 ERA, as his strikeout rate dropped, his walk rate increased, and his home run rate doubled. Note that his entire 2015 season was in line with his career norms in terms of ERA, FIP, and xFIP. The second half might have been regression to the mean rather than an improvement followed by fatigue. It certainly would be better for the Angels if the latter were true, and Santiago developed more stamina.

Note that Santiago greatly outperformed his FIP during his career. Even through July of last season, his ERA was much better than his FIP. I suspect his home park and the Angels defense add a ton to Santiago’s numbers.



from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1QSw5kz

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