Jay M. Nunez: May 2016

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

3 Things to Do After a Massage

A massage is a wonderful way to relax, de-stress, and improve your health. Here are some simple tips to help … Continue reading →

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I Feel Your Pain

I wince reading this sentence:

The Baltimore Orioles have placed backup catcher Caleb Joseph on the 15-day disabled list with a testicular injury.

You’re only supposed to have three balls on you when you’re about to draw a walk. I hope he recovers quickly.

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Wright’s Neck

David Wright received an injection to try to relieve a herniated disk in his neck:

Collins said the injection could take 48 to take effect. The Mets opted to keep Wright, who is batting .227 with seven homers and 14 RBI this season, on the active roster. If Wright doesn’t respond well to the medication, he might be headed to the disabled list.

Wright played in only 38 games last season as he rehabbed a back injury that flared up while he was coming back from a hamstring injury.

Wright was hitting the ball far but not too often, with 15 of his 31 hits going for extra bases. He also drew 26 walks to give him a healthy OBP. In other words, he was helping the team at the plate despite a low batting average. Given his injury history since 2011, however, it’s not clear how much more his body can take.

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Blowout Tuesday

Tuesday is getaway day in the west as the Padres play the Mariners and the Astros play the Diamondbacks in four-game home and home series. The two series finish the first half with afternoon games in Arizona and Seattle. The Mariners are up 16-0 at the end of five innings, while the Astros lead the Diamondbacks 8-3 at the end of five. The Mariners collected 14 hits and five walks, and the 14 hits include five home runs. James Shields allowed 10 of the runs in 2 2/3 innings.

The Astros own 11 hits and three walks so far, with two doubles and two home runs. George Springer needs a triple for the cycle.

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Still Pushing the Basics

Still Pushing

I recently received a Facebook notification from the ‘On This Day’ reminder service about a video that I created two years ago. Upon clicking the link, I was shocked to see that it had already been two years since I shared the footage. Perhaps one of the reasons it seemed more recent is that I still perform all of the exercises seen within the video. A camera crew could stop by any week and catch me performing similar routines. Very little has changed as far as what I do when I’m training. Yet, while my consistency may seem insignificant, I believe there is a valuable lesson to be learned from the example.

Consistent Action

For those who might be new to the site, the previously referenced video can be seen below. The footage was filmed in the first half of 2014.

As you can see, I enjoy training outdoors with whatever is around me. I’m a firm believer in the idea that I can train anywhere with anything (including nothing). In other words, I don’t believe that I need any particular tool to keep myself strong and conditioned. Instead, I make the most of my surroundings by pushing myself with whatever is available.

Don’t let my creativity fool you to believable that I’m against any particular tool however. Throughout my 20+ years of training, I have studied and experimented with just about every possible exercise tool and methodology. From free weights to odd objects to calisthenics and everything in between, there is very little that I haven’t done. And contrary to what some might believe, I’ve found that just about everything works. It’s not the tool that matters, but rather the effort that is consistently put forth by the individual.

In layman’s terms, as long as you are willing to consistently work hard, you can and will do well with almost anything. The specifics matter less than the effort and intent that catapults one into action.

Marketing Hype

Unfortunately, many people in today’s technology-driven world have been misled to believe that they need something new or different. The marketing superpowers constantly drive home the message that there is always a new or better way to get in shape. In the past month alone, I’ve had three companies contact me in hopes that I’d give a stamp of approval to what they’ve described as a revolutionary new exercise product. In each case, I have politely declined, not because I’m against innovation, but rather because I’ve been around long enough to know what really matters.

Speaking as a longtime coach, my attention will always be focused on the intangible qualities that an individual possesses. When I begin working with an athlete, I don’t care what kind of equipment he’s used or what type of programs he’s followed. I want to know what kind of heart, dedication, and effort he is willing to put forth each day. As long as those intangibles are present, we can do well with anything. Conversely, without those qualities, even the most state-of-the-art facility isn’t going to get the job done.

Take Home Message

I started this entry by saying that there is a valuable lesson to be learned. In a nutshell, I’ll sum it up by saying that you don’t need anything fancy to get stronger and more conditioned than most. You can do extremely well by working hard with the basics. I don’t say this to suggest that you can’t eventually advance beyond the basics, but I will remind you that the need to do is often overstated.

I firmly believe that I could continue to train exactly as seen above on a deserted island for several years and reappear in just as good shape as I am today. I wouldn’t need to read anything new or try any different equipment. I could rely solely on my willingness to continually push and challenge myself with whatever is around me.

Unfortunately, I can’t sell those intangibles through a magic potion or instant download. They must come from within. And that’s a message that more people need to hear. So many people waste time and money trying to find the latest or greatest supplement or product without realizing that they’re really missing something within. You can’t find effort and dedication at Walmart or Amazon. Instead, you need to search within and extract these qualities on your own. That’s what will ultimately drive you towards success (regardless of your goals).

Final Thoughts

I typically ignore my Facebook reminders, but I’m glad that I took a moment to read through them last week. I’m still amazed at how fast the last two years have flown by. What I’m not surprised by though is that the same exercises that worked for me two years ago continue to work for me now.

Thus, while I certainly can include variety over time, I also know that I never need to make any drastic changes. There is no secret as far as what it takes to improve physically. All that you need to do is continually bust your ass without straying too far from the proven path.

No one outgrows the basics and the fundamentals will never expire.

Related Entries:

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“Consistent action creates consistent results.” – Christine Kane

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On The Desk - Renaissance Assassin Part 6 - Bringing some colour to the base

A nice long bank holiday weekend gave me a lot of chances to paint, I actually did work on THREE projects (two you've already seen some progress on, the third will come soon) Yes, I'm terrible at finishing things! Nevertheless sometimes you just have to paint what you want to paint. Here is where we left the base for the assassin, primed but bereft of colour. Let's change that!

I grabbed some colours from my collection, a lot of natural shades of brown and some grey and off white to let me play with the saturation. Also Ratskin Flesh, it might look a little out of place but it gave me some nice colours when mixed with the others.

I really just played with the colours, no recipes from me I'm afraid. I just took colours onto my wet palette and mixed them around applying them to different areas.

More variation! I went back in with even more colour mixes to really make the wall look like it's made from a variety of natural rocks. I also used some washes to help with this.

When I was happy (or at least mostly happy, the top section might need more work) I used some milliput following this guide (massive voodoo link) to mix a very watery milliput mix. I applied this over the whole base with three to four layers. This gave me some pointing between the bricks and helped give bricks an aged look.

It's not finished yet, I will go back in with more glazes and maybe some pigments but I'm happy with the progress.

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Sales Manager, How Are You Performing?

I want to have a heart to heart with Sales Managers/Executives. Sales people and others can listen in if you want.

We need to have a serious discussion about your performance. Yeah, I know we always tend to talk about the performance of our people, but we need to focus on your own performance. After all, the data on sales management turnover is pretty disturbing—the average longevity in the job is 20 months.

Sales management, at every level, is a tough job. We are expected to perform—that is make the numbers. If we don’t, executive management will quickly look for someone who will.

We all know the challenge, yet too often, I see managers spending too much time doing things that don’t directly impact their own performance.

In the last year, I’ve seen all sorts of reactions to the challenge of managers improving their own performance.

Some sit in their offices, hiding behind reports and analytics. They look for solace and solutions in the numbers. Some leverage the numbers to provide excuses, I mean answers, to their management. “The market is down for everyone, our performance is comparable to the competitors, Our products are no longer as competitive as they need to be, We’ve had retention problems due to poor customer experience/service, Our people don’t have the right skill levels…..” Don’t get me wrong, we have to look at data to start to diagnose and understand the problems/challenges we face, but we always have to do something about it–not just report on it.

Others are very action oriented. They start barnstorming the customer base, they move into the “Salesperson-In-Chief” role, swooping in to close a deal, then moving to the next, then the next, never really taking time to understand the problem, but believing in their own superior sales abilities, trying to close every deal they can. There are all sorts of problems with this approach, the simplest of them is the math of this approach never works out. If the sales manager becomes sales person in chief, they step from the leadership role into an individual contributor role. Even if they did that full time, they could never achieve better numbers than a top performer in an individual territory–they have no leverage in the organizational attainment (a collection of multiple territories).

There’s another challenge with that approach, these sales managers start separating themselves from their teams. They take the ownership and engagement away from the people on the team. Yes, perhaps the manager is dictating the “to-do’s,” but fundamentally, nothing happens unless the sales manager does it.

The math just doesn’t add up, if the sales manager can make the numbers by the barnstorming, deal making mode, then why are there sales people?

Then there are those that get in command and control mode. These are not very different than the barnstorming manager, except they never get in front of a customer. They start dictating from behind a desk. They start issuing orders to each sales person. Again, they take ownership of everything away from the sales person. Sales people become pawns executing the wishes of the sales manager. Of course, since the sales manager isn’t in front of customers, they don’t know what’s going on, so their “orders” may be misguided. But, even worse, these managers suck selling time out of the organization–just when it’s most critical. People are always doing status reviews and updates, they are reporting to the managers, asking what to do next. They have to wait until the sales manager decides.

Alternatively, these managers start commanding actions, without knowing what actions are impactful. They’ll double down on all the activity measure—more prospecting calls, more sales calls, more demos, more first customer meetings, more deals in the pipeline…. Again, they don’t understand what’s driving the performance issues, they just believe more is better, when what they may be doing is simply creating more performance problems.

If we step back, sales manager performance is pretty easy to understand and diagnose, particularly that of front line sales management.

Our jobs a sales managers is, conceptually, pretty simple. It’s to maximize the performance of our people. If they are performing well, then it’s highly likely we are performing we are performing well. All the other stuff is pretty much window dressing.

As we look at performance issues, it’s really about looking at each of the people on the team. How is each performing? What do we do to help each perform at the highest levels possible?

The tools we have to help address performance are pretty straightforward. Coaching is the single highest leverage tool available in helping our people improve. Yet too often, managers aren’t coaching, or are coaching poorly. Sales managers must be spending at least 50% of their time, coaching them and helping each improve their performance.

Again, it’s pretty simple, if each person is performing, then it rolls up and means we are probably performing.

There are other critical tools: Do we have the right people, are we providing them the systems, training, tools, processes to help them be effective and perform, are we removing the roadblocks and barriers to their effectiveness, have we set clear performance expectations and do our people own them? Are we addressing ongoing performance issues, or are we hiding from them?

As managers and leaders, our performance is all about our people’s performance. Yet too often, we seem to treat those separately. We can’t be top performers in our roles, unless we maximize the performance of our people.

What are you doing to help your people perform at the highest levels possible? It’s the best way to make sure you are performing at the highest levels possible?

Afterword: For pragmatic advice on maximizing your own performance, take a look at Sales Manager Survival Guide. It’s your roadmap to your team and your own success.

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Games of the Day

Joe Ross leads the Nationals against Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Ross owns a 1.61 ERA on the road this season, where he allowed just one of his four home runs. Nola does a good job of keeping the ball in the park also, with just five home runs allowed this season.

In the battle of the initials, the Yankees send CC Sabathia against J.A. Happ and the Blue Jays. Sabathia continues the home run theme. He’s one of two pitchers with at least 40 IP to allow just one home run. Happ makes his third start against the Yankees, with a 2-0 record and 1.38 ERA.

Gerrit Cole and Jose Fernandez do battle as the Pirates play the Marlins. Cole is 4-1 with a 2.05 ERA on the road, thanks to just 26 hits and seven walks in 30 2/3 innings. Fernandez makes his 11th start of the season, matching his total from last year after returning from Tommy John surgery. He struck out 79 in those 11 starts; he’s already struck out 90 this season in four fewer innings.

Finally Scott Kazmir takes on Jake Arrieta, as the Dodgers try to even the series with the Cubs. Kazmir’s home run rate nearly doubled compared to last year, raising his ERA 1.74 runs. Arrieta tries for 10 wins in two months without a loss. He’s allowed just one run in night games this season, and just eight hits in 30 innings.

Enjoy!

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Flirting with .400

Chelsea Janes wonders if Daniel Murphy can hit .400 after another good game Monday night. He picked up three more hits and drove in three runs, including the game winners. That put his season batting average at .395:

Now, apply the more nuanced filter to this remarkable offensive showing: Murphy entered Monday hitting .409 on balls put in play, which was third highest in the majors at the time. Hitters general hover a few points below .300. BABIP averages as high as Murphy’s are generally considered outliers due for regression to the mean — artificially elevated by luck as much as by particularly solid contact.

Then again, Murphy is making a great deal of solid contact. Fangraphs estimates he is hitting 26 percent of the balls he hits for line drives, which is in the top 25 in baseball. Nearly 39 percent of his contact qualifies as hard contact, also according to Fangraphs. That also ranks him in the top 25, but does not separate him the way his average does.

Last season, Murphy greatly lowered his K rate, which helped his batting average. It’s up again this season, which is why his .409 BABIP doesn’t have him over .400 in BA. But he’s hitting more home runs, too, and that will counter the bad effect of the strikeouts.

You can follow my calculation of the probability of Murphy hitting .400 in this spreadsheet and chart. Unlike others who flirted with .400, Murphy hasn’t spent that much time actually over .400. He has stayed steady around .390, however. He’ll need another hot streak to get over that hump. The two measures of his probability keep rising however, with the dynamic adjustment of his intrinsic BA now putting the probability better than .00001. If he can keep the .400 BABIP up, he has a shot.

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Fixing Harvey

The change Matt Harvey made to his mechanics appears quite simple:

The change Harvey made was slight but impactful. He started separating his hands sooner (taking the ball out of his glove) which allowed him to get on top of his pitches earlier than in past games this season.

The early separation of hands meant Harvey was quicker to get to what is called the “power position” in the delivery, which combined with good extension allows for much later life on the fastball. Harvey’s fastball had a lot of life and late movement on Monday, some of the best we have seen from him in 2016.

He kept his velocity up through all seven innings he pitched. Nice job by the Mets staff and Harvey to figure out the problem and correct it.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my program produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the log5 list:

0.362 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wily Peralta
0.356 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Wily Peralta
0.342 — Matthew Adams batting against Wily Peralta
0.326 — Greg Garcia batting against Wily Peralta
0.324 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta
0.318 — Eric Fryer batting against Wily Peralta
0.310 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin
0.306 — Matt Holliday batting against Wily Peralta
0.305 — Jeff Francoeur batting against Jake Peavy
0.303 — Tommy Pham batting against Wily Peralta

Log5 wants to bat against Wily Peralta!

Here is the NN list:

0.310, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.362, 0.745 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wily Peralta.
0.297, 0.742 — Francisco Lindor batting against Colby Lewis.
0.302, 0.737 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.342, 0.734 — Matthew Adams batting against Wily Peralta.
0.299, 0.734 — Daniel Murphy batting against Aaron Nola.
0.249, 0.731 — Buster Posey batting against Matthew R Wisler.
0.302, 0.729 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Eric Surkamp.
0.261, 0.729 — Josh Harrison batting against Jose D Fernandez.
0.295, 0.724 — Danny Valencia batting against Tyler B Duffey.

The NN is not as hung up on Wily Peralta. Both system like Stephen Piscotty as a pick. Good luck!

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Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Monday, May 30, 2016

Everyday is a Holliday

Matt Holliday celebrates the holiday with three hits and a home run as the Cardinals beat the Brewers 6-0. Matt Carpenter added four hits, including two doubles. He’s on a pace for another 40 doubles season.

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Lifting Duvall

The Reds offense took the Coors cure as they explode for 11 runs Monday afternoon. Adam Duvall hit two of the Reds five home runs to bring his total to 13 for the season. With his 2 for 5, he’s hitting .271/.305/.606 for the season.

Duvall is a nice example to taking a flyer on a player who can do one thing. In Duvall’s case, it’s hit for power. He had high slugging percentages and low OBPs through his minor league career. In his first two seasons in the majors, he didn’t play much, but 12 of his 28 hit went for extra bases. He continued that playing full time this season, now with 26 of his 42 hits home runs or doubles.

The Reds tore their team apart over the winter. Duvall is not part of the future. At seasonal age 27, he’s already at his peak. He’ll be by that by the time the next generation of Reds is ready to play. If the Reds had better pitching, he would be a useful cog in a the offense.

The Reds survive a Rockies rally in the ninth to win 11-8.

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River Park Place – Phase 2 coming to Richmond

Following the success of Intracorp’s One River Park Place, we are pleased to bring you and your clients the newest addition to Richmond’s riverfront Oval Village. RPP II will be Richmond’s brightest new neighbourhood and will feature the most sought-after amenities within minutes, while paving the way with progressive and illuminating technological details.

RPP II will feature 127 vibrant one, two and three bedroom homes. Views of the mountains, the river or the city centre will celebrate both the natural setting to the north, and a bustling epicentre of amenities to the south. Without even leaving your front door, Intracorp’s quality and industry-leading excellence is proven with state-of-the-art recording and practice rooms, a business centre, games and study rooms – all within steps – and all part of the luxury amenities at RPP II. Also enjoy a peaceful yoga room, an innovative gym space, and the ultimate car wash.

The post River Park Place – Phase 2 coming to Richmond appeared first on Vancouver New Condos.

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Good Day for Foltynewicz

Mike Foltynewicz pitched six strong innings on Monday as the Braves beat the Giants 5-3. Foltynewicz allowed three hits and two walks, leading to just one run. He evens his record at 2-2 and lowers his ERA to 3.51.

Foltynewicz figured strongly among the top picks for a hit, calculated by the neural network (NN). It provides a good example of why you need to take the recommendations with a grain of salt. Only Joe Panik picked up a hit in the game among those suggested by the NN. Buster Posey did not play. The Giants were in Colorado on Sunday, and had to travel across country to play an early afternoon game. That’s a tough schedule for even a good offense like the Giants.

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The Dark Knight Returns

Matt Harvey pitched four perfect innings so far, striking out six as the White Sox and Mets are scoreless going to the bottom of the fourth. Maybe Harvey actually found the flaw in his delivery. We’ll see if he fatigues as the game continues, but right now he looks like he’s back in form.

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my program produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the log5 list:

0.346 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson
0.325 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman
0.324 — Jean Segura batting against Collin McHugh
0.317 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jeff Locke
0.312 — Martin Prado batting against Jeff Locke
0.307 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.307 — Starling Marte batting against Justin Nicolino
0.306 — Josh Harrison batting against Justin Nicolino
0.305 — Melky Cabrera batting against Matt Harvey
0.304 — Hunter Pence batting against Mike Foltynewicz

Now, the NN list:

0.307, 0.757 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.286, 0.749 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Escobar.
0.346, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.300, 0.744 — Francisco Lindor batting against Colby Lewis.
0.306, 0.742 — Josh Harrison batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.325, 0.741 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.286, 0.739 — Joe Panik batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.255, 0.739 — Ben Revere batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.283, 0.737 — Matt Duffy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.287, 0.736 — Denard Span batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

I removed Dee Gordon and Michael Brantley from the NN list as they are not available to play.

If you look at the three-year stats for today’s starting pitchers, you see that Mike Foltynewicz has the double whammy of a very high BABIP with a very high home run rate. He is somewhat improved in 2016, but still is high in both categories.

The batter on the list that surprises me a bit is Ben Revere, who is off to a very slow start for the Nationals. With just 95 PA this season, his low Hit Average gets pulled a bit toward the MLB average. His previous two seasons were very good, so the NN is recognizing that his long term number is more important than his current year number at this point.

Once again, these lists are a guide. Use your own knowledge of ballparks, injuries, platoon advantages, etc. to make your picks.

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Games of the Day

The Red Sox lead the Orioles by one game as Boston travels to Baltimore for a four-game series. Steven Wright takes the hill against Tyler Wilson. Wright is impressive for a knuckleball pitcher, as he doesn’t walk many batters. This year, he appears to be getting better movement, too, as opponents hit just three home runs off him, compared to 12 home runs in 12 more innings last season. Wilson is that rate pitcher who allows a high number of balls in play, but a low number of hits per inning. In his brief career, his ERA is well before his xFIP.

The Dodgers visit Chicago to play the best team in baseball, the Cubs. Alex Wood faces Jason Hammel. With good K/BB/HR numbers, Wood should have a better ERA than his 4.03 mark. He performed poorly with runners in scoring position, allowing a .359/.400/.513 slash line. Hammel’s 2.17 ERA would represent his best single season performance. He cut his home run rate more than 50% compared to the last two seasons.

Philadelphia find themselves just 3 1/2 games back in the NL East race as the first place Nationals come to town. Tanner Roark battles Jeremy Hellickson. Roark upped his strike out rate this season, and his walk rate rose with it. Trading hits for walks, however, is working well. Hellickson is eating innings, but is on a pace for about 30 home runs allowed. Most of those so far have come on the road.

Enjoy!

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The White Sox Slide

The White Sox slipped to third place in the AL Central after a ten game span in which they lost five of six to Kansas City and three of four to Cleveland. For some reason, that put Robin Ventura‘s head on the block. What happened?

At the end of play on May 9th, the White Sox stood 23-10 with a six game lead in the AL Central. It looked like it would be the summer of Chicago baseball as both Windy City teams opened up nice division leads. Since then however, the White Sox are just 4-13.

The offense was playing well through May 9th, with a .249/.324/.394 slash line. They weren’t hitting for average, but they were getting on base with some power. They are getting on base less during the slide, .249/.307/.383.

The problem is really the pitching. During the hot streak, they allowed opponents a .225/.293/.339 slash line. That would have been enough to compensate the offensive slide. Instead, the White Sox itchers getting hammered to the tune of .279/.337/.444. Note that the starts in that time have good strikeout and walk numbers, but home runs are hurting them. They also give up more hits that I would expect. I’m wondering if other teams just decided to attack the White Sox staff early, since they are around the plate so much? If they did, it’s working, since they are driving the starters from the game early, putting more pressure on the White Sox bullpen.

If the latter is true, that opponents made an adjustment to the White Sox staff, then maybe Ventura deserves some blame. One thing the manager and his staff should do is recognize an opponent’s adjustment, and counter it. We’ll see what changes now that Chicago was knocked off their perch.

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A New Noob and Summer Noob Schedule

Hi folks!

As some of you might have noticed yesterday, we have a new Noob on board - Necropocalypse - you can find out more about him on his page here.

With Necropocalypse on board, we now number 5 current Noobs so I thought I'd give a quick run down of our schedule as we head into summer.

Monday - Noobish News/Q&As

Tuesday - Shamikebab

Wednesday - A Closer Look

Thursday - Merkeysa

Friday - ArkMechanicus

Saturday - Brambleten

Sunday - Necropocalypse

We plan on everything bar the News and Q&As to be weekly, with News as required and Q&As on a regular, ongoing basis. This may not always be possible, but with 5 of us, I'm really happy to say we should now have almost daily fresh new content. This is something I'm quite proud that we're going to be able to achieve and will hopefully continue for a long time.

Cheers,

Bram

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Weekly Look at Offense

Week eight of the 2016 season proved to be the highest scoring week of the year, coming in at 9.35 runs per game. That was nearly a run per game higher than last week, at 8.37 runs per game. The 2016 season continues to run ahead of the 2015 season at the same point, 8.67 runs per game this year versus 8.32 runs per game through eight weeks in 2015. (All comparisons are through eight weeks in each season.) As has been true all year, home runs and walks are way up, there is nearly one more strikeout per game, and other hits (singles, doubles, and triples) are down slightly. Overall, there are more batters reaching base, and more long hits to drive them home.

I suspect this difference between the seasons my get bigger over the next few weeks. As you can see on the graph associated with this spread sheet, 2015 entered a ten week down period in week eight. If 2016 can avoid that, we are looking at much higher scoring this season.

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Memorial Day Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date. My thoughts go out to the family and friends of those braves souls who gave their lives to protect their country.

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Sunday, May 29, 2016

More on Beating the Streak

I ran a test of the Neural Network (NN) I’m using to produce a set of output for the Beat the Streak game. I built the network by selecting 10 random dates from each even year from 1980 to 2008, a total of 15 years. I took all games on those 150 dates, determined the starting pitcher for each game, and the starting opposition lineup for each game, leaving out the opposing pitcher. My guess is that worked out to be about 13 games a day, 17 position players per game, or a total of about 33,000 samples. I then trained the network on 75% of those samples, and used 25% for validation. I ran 200 training epochs, but the NN converged rather quickly.

To test, I used 160 dates, 40 each from 2003, 2005, 2007, and 2009. So there is no overlap with the training data. For each date, I used the NN to determine the match-up with the highest probability of getting a hit, and if the batter did indeed get a hit that day. I ordered the data by date, and looked for streaks. Here are the results:

Days: 160, Expected Games with hit: 124.9, Actual Game with hit 129.
Streak Length: 1, Number of times: 8
Streak Length: 2, Number of times: 5
Streak Length: 3, Number of times: 2
Streak Length: 4, Number of times: 3
Streak Length: 5, Number of times: 2
Streak Length: 6, Number of times: 2
Streak Length: 8, Number of times: 1
Streak Length: 9, Number of times: 1
Streak Length: 10, Number of times: 1
Streak Length: 13, Number of times: 1
Streak Length: 14, Number of times: 1
Streak Length: 16, Number of times: 1

So in this case, the NN underestimates the probability of the batter getting a hit that day. That’s good, I prefer a conservative model. It predicts a probability of 0.78, and delivers .806. It’s in the ball park.

Note however, that the long streaks are not very long. The season only made it into double digits four times.

As a sanity check, here is what happens when the worst player is chosen every day:

Days: 160, Expected Games with hit: 94.4, Actual Game with hit 97.
Streak Length: 1, Number of times: 16
Streak Length: 2, Number of times: 9
Streak Length: 3, Number of times: 9
Streak Length: 4, Number of times: 2
Streak Length: 5, Number of times: 1
Streak Length: 7, Number of times: 2
Streak Length: 8, Number of times: 1

The NN expects with a probability of .59, and the players produce at a rate of .606 per game. Not only that, but there are no double digit streaks. I’m liking this a lot.

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Castro Converts

Starlin Castro hits a home run over the centerfield fence to break up Jake Odorizzi‘s no-hitter and give the Yankees a 2-1 lead in the seventh inning. Odorizzi issued his first walk of the game just before the impressive shot by Castro. That gives Castro seven homers on the season.

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Finch on the Perch

The Bridgeport Bluefish hired Jennie Finch to manage for one day, making her the first woman to manage a professional men’s baseball team. Good friend Jim Storer is there and sends this photo of Finch throwing out the first pitch:

Jennie Finch throws out the first pitch in Bridgeport, Ct.

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A Perfect Odor is in the Air

Jake Odorizzi just completed five perfect innings against the Yankees. One third of the 15 batters against him went down on strikes. Odorizzi is in a good pitching duel with Nathan Eovaldi, who allowed one run through four innings. He allowed three hits and one walk while striking out five.

Odorizzi came into the game with a .243 batting average allowed.

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An Introduction from the new guy!

Hello!

My name is Dan, and I recently joined the team.

I have been a hobbyist (old GW term!) for nigh on 30 years. In that time I've collected everything from Space Marines, to Elves, Daemons and modern-era models. Like everyone else, my painting right at the start wasn't anything spectacular. I never primed a model (at 11 years old you have neither the funds or the know-how) and my paint was always really thick. But at that age it was the most awesome paint job ever!

After around 5 years of painting off and on (though gaming throughout) I was inspired by a friend of mine called Nick Thorburn. He used a rather unique 'Extreme Highlighting' method, with really deep dark shadow tones and bright highlights. No blending, just blocks of colour laid over each other. I practiced this technique until I was happy with the results, and could churn out models like nobody's business! Combine that with the old GW Inks (those older painters out there will remember Chestnut and Brown Ink no doubt) that had a glossy finish to them. These inks really made my models pop, and meant I could work even faster.

In later years I tried blending, which is something I'm still not particularly good at (room for improvement perhaps? Yes, always!) But the later GW paints didn't give me the effects I craved, and my painting technique changed once again. It's safe to say that my current painting style is what you'd call circa 2001 GW style. I once painted a Beastman Shaggoth (still got it somewhere, I'll dig it out and take a picture) that was almost identical to the one on the box.

I had two stints at GW Carlisle (and 6 months in Dumfries before going back and running Carlisle right as 4th Edition 40K was released and the Storm of Chaos Summer Campaign was in full swing) and I really got into painting models as they are on the box. What better advert for a model than an almost identical copy in your store, right? Teaching people to paint was always a passion of mine, and still is, hence one of the reasons to join this group. I will be stepping outside of my comfort zone and trying a host of new techniques including blending, NMM, airbrushing, and whatever else I think will help me step up my game!

So, what do I like to paint? I'm a huge fan of Fantasy models, as in swords and sorcery. I have a rather "small" undertaking that I will be sharing with you over the coming months. I have recently acquired a copy of Milton Bradley's Heroquest, and a copy of GW's Advanced Heroquest. Combine these with Warhammer Quest and WHQ Silver Tower, and you have the history of these dungeon crawlers, painted week by week for your enjoyment. Oh! And all the Dungeon Saga games and expansions too. You could say I like dungeon crawler games.

I also have a number of other painting projects to throw into the mix: Batman Joker Crew, Wrath of Kings Honor & Treachery Starter Box, Gentleman's Club (from Empire of the Dead) and my ever growing Trollblood army for Hordes. I have recently backed the amazing Dark Souls Kickstarter and the Super Dungeon Explore Legends Kickstarter as well, which I may put paint to model at some point. There is a full Maki Rolljordan Chaos Bloodbowl team en-route (working team name Lords of Pleasure) and a copy of Sedition Wars to go through too. A number of these are large projects, but I will post some odd models that I fancy painting from time to time, and may even do the odd request or two!

I look forward to getting your feedback on my projects, and I hope to share some knowledge along the way!

Cheers,

Dan

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Games of the Day

The Yankees and Rays feature two similar pitchers Sunday afternoon, Nathan Eovaldi and Jake Odorizzi. Both sport good strikeout and walk numbers, but are undone by home runs allowed. Despite their low walk numbers, they each allowed three homers with men on base, or six out of 15.

Michael Wacha tries to hang the first loss of the season on Stephen Strasburg as the Cardinals and Nationals conclude their series. Wacha owns a high ERA. While he is walking more batters than usual, he is getting hammered when men reach base. Opponents hit .358/.432/.544 in that situation, the power numbers indicate men are scoring from first base. Strasburg owns a reverse platoon split this season, with left-handed batters hitting .177/.244/.248 against him. For his career, Strasburg does as well against LHB as he does against RHB.

Chris Sale makes his second attempt at winning 10 games in two months as the White Sox face Edinson Volques and the Royals. Sale is still perfect on the road, 5-0 in five starts with a 1.41 ERA. Volquez pitches much better at home this season, with a 2.06 ERA in KC versus a 6.55 ERA on the road.

Finally, Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers play the rubber game of their series against the Mets, Bartolo Colon standing in opposition. Kershaw is very close to being the best pitcher ever, but I’m wondering if he can win 300 games? In his seven full season in the majors, he’s averaging 15.5 wins per year. At that pace, he’ll need over another 11.5 seasons to get there. He’s seasonal age 28, so it’s possible, but it would be good if Kershaw could win another 50 to 55 games by the end of his age 30 season. At this point, I would not be surprised in Colon lasted another five years and gets to 300 wins.

Enjoy!

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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my program produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. First, the log5 list:

0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha
0.344 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.340 — Josh Reddick batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.326 — Billy Burns batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.322 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Jed Lowrie batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.312 — Josh Phegley batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against R.A. Dickey
0.304 — Stephen Vogt batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.304 — Buster Posey batting against Christopher Rusin

Now, the Neural Network (NN) list:

0.304, 0.759 — Buster Posey batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.287, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.322, 0.749 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.289, 0.744 — Joe Panik batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.291, 0.743 — Matt Duffy batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.344, 0.742 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.326, 0.740 — Billy Burns batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.272, 0.739 — Josh Harrison batting against Martin Perez.
0.284, 0.737 — Denard Span batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.279, 0.736 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.351, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha.

The log5 method I’m using does not like Mike Pelfry. The NN method doesn’t like Chris Rusin.

I publish these lists as a guide, a way to point you in the right direction. Rusin was on the list yesterday, then the Rockies pushed him back a day. Catchers, like Buster Posey, get lots of days off. I don’t have the disabled list memorized, so someone might pop up who is hurt. Good luck!

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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

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Saturday, May 28, 2016

Syndergaard Throws At and Thrown Out

Noah Syndergaard was ejected for throwing behind Chase Utley:

With one out and nobody on in the third inning of a scoreless game, Syndergaard’s first pitch to Utley sailed behind the second baseman’s back by a considerable margin.

Plate umpire Adam Hamari immediately ejected Syndergaard, prompting irate Mets manager Terry Collins to come storming out of the dugout. Collins also was ejected.

I’m glad Syndergaard didn’t hit Utley. Intentionally missing behind a hitter is better than hitting him, but players should not be launching balls like weapons. I still getting the out is the best revenge. I suppose if MLB had upheld Utley’s suspension, the Mets would have less of a reason to do this.

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Reds Win

The Reds broke an 11 game losing streak with a 7-6 win over the Brewers. Down 6-1, the scored five runs in the top of the seventh inning to tie the game and one in the top of the ninth to win it. Even with the win, however, the Reds are just 2-14 in their last 16 games.

The Reds and Braves looked like teams that were tanking entering 2016, cleaning house of many of their older, expensive players. The problem, of course, is that Minnesota, a team that looked like it was building on a good 2015, has the worst record in the majors. That’s why it is very tough in baseball to prove tanking. A good team can go bad without even trying.

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Darvish Doing Well

Yu Darvish just completed his fourth inning of work against the Pirates in Texas. In his return from Tommy John surgery, he is showing no ill effects, he allowed one hit and one walk while striking out five. The Rangers lead the Pirates 3-0.

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Big Comeback

The Royals set a team record with a seven-run ninth to beat the White Sox 8-7. That’s the largest ninth inning comeback in team history.

Brett Eibner, playing his second big league game, singled to cap the biggest ninth-inning comeback in Kansas City Royals history, a seven-run rally off David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle that lifted the World Series champions over the Chicago White Sox 8-7 Saturday.

…

Held to six hits through eight innings, the Royals doubled their total in the 32-minute bottom of the ninth and overcame a six-run deficit for the first time since beating San Francisco on June 22, 2008. The inning included four walks, two of them intentional, and four runs scored with two outs.

Chicago lost for the 13th time in 17 games.

The Royals hit rather poorly in games that were late and close coming into this game, as well as when they were trailing by five runs or more.

Just like in Friday night’s Mets game against the Dodgers, a closer blew a non-save situation. In this case, however, the reliever took the loss.

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Beat the Streak

A couple of weeks ago, I asked a co-worker about his fantasy team. He was in the middle of selecting a player for his daily play of Beat the Streak, the game sponsored by MLB.com. He asked for some advice, and then asked if I played. I didn’t, and I explained the odds are very much stacked against you. He thanked me for ruining his fun :-), but my help kept his streak alive for another day.

It also made me revisit playing the game.

Be the first to reach 57 games and win $5.6 Million

Given that you don’t need to spend any money to play, I started thinking about how to go about doing this. The first thing I did was go to the FanGraphs list of probable starters, and sorting on Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP). I then looked for pitchers with a high BABIP and a low strikeout rate. From today, Alfredo Simon and Aaron Blair are good examples. Giving up a lot of home runs with few walks would be good, too. Simon gives up the homers, but both he and Blair walk batters. Adam Wainwright and Jered Weaver actually do a better job of meeting all three categories.

Of course, once I identified the pitchers, I needed go to the opposing rosters and find hitters with high BABIP who put the ball in play a lot. Needless to say, this takes time. Given that I have an extensive database at my fingertips, I decided to write a program to see if I could do better.

My first try was to write a program that calculated the expected Hit Average of a batter pitcher match-up. Hit Average is hits divided by plate appearances. The amount of at bats a player gets in a game is variable, put the plate appearances are pretty constant. So I figured a hit average for the batter based on 2016 stats, an opposition hit average for the pitcher based on 2016 stats, regressed those for hitters and pitchers with few PA to the league hit average*, and used the Log5 method to figure the probability.

*For the league hit average, I only use player whose position at the time of the PA was not pitcher.

The results were reasonable but they were all based on small sample sizes. So I averaged that number with a three-year weighted hit average, again regressed to the 2016 league average from small sample sizes. Each counted 50%; I’m using it more as a ranking method then call it a true probability. Here is the top of the list it produced for today:

0.369 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright
0.340 — Ryan Braun batting against Alfredo Simon
0.322 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver
0.320 — Robinson Cano batting against Phil Hughes
0.312 — Francisco M Lindor batting against Ubaldo Jimenez
0.311 — Martin Prado batting against Aaron D Blair
0.310 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Aaron D Blair
0.304 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Alfredo Simon
0.304 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Wainwright
0.302 — Buster Posey batting against Christopher Rusin
0.302 — Kelby Tomlinson batting against Christopher Rusin
0.302 — Jonathan Villar batting against Alfredo Simon

So it agrees with my method of choosing pitchers. The number leading off is again a ranking, but if you want to think of it as a probability, that fine. A player with a .369 probability of getting a hit in a PA would have a probability of 0.84 of getting a hit in four PA, if that’s how you define a game.

I decided to try another method as well. I built a neural network using the same five parameters; current year pitcher hit average, three year weighted pitcher hit average, current year batter hit average, three year weighted batter hit average, and the current year league hit average. I then trained the net, and here is the top of the list it produced for today:

0.302, 0.760 — Buster Posey batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.322, 0.752 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.291, 0.745 — Joe Panik batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.320, 0.743 — Robinson Cano batting against Phil Hughes.
0.289, 0.742 — Matt M Duffy batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.369, 0.741 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.285, 0.737 — Denard Span batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.279, 0.735 — Ben Revere batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.312, 0.734 — Francisco M Lindor batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.302, 0.734 — Kelby Tomlinson batting against Christopher Rusin.

(Dee Gordon was on the list, but he’s not playing due to a drug suspension.)

The first number is the weight hit averages I used in the previous list. The second number is the probability of the player getting a hit in a game started by this pitcher.

The neural net (NN) likes the Giants chances against Chris Rusin. The biggest difference in the lists is the absence of Ryan Braun from the NN. Having looked at bit at the parameters, the NN seems to favor the three-year hit averages over the current year hit averages, but a big current year boost counts for something. Murphy drops, but stays high on the NN because his prior three years are okay, and this particular match-up is good for him.

I am still back testing to see how well these methods work, but if it can help you beat the streak, I’ll publish these top lists daily. I’ll also continue to work to see if there are better NN combinations for predictions.

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Games of the Day

Rick Porcello and Marcus Stroman square off as the Red Sox continue their series with the Blue Jays. Porcello lowered his ERA almost a run and a half compare to last season, and it may be due to better defense behind him. He’s allowing fewer hits, but not fewer home runs. His xFIP is about the same. Stroman, in his short career, proved good at keeping the ball in the park, with just 13 home runs allowed in 227 innings.

The Giants try to hold off the Rockies in Colorado as Madison Bumgarner takes on Eddie Butler. Bumgarner pitched some good games at Coors, but in general the ballpark took a toll on him. Butler found his control this season. In his first two year he walked 49 batters in 95 1/3 innings. This season he walked just three batter in 27 2/3 innings.

Yu Darvish returns to the mound for Texas as they host the Pirates. Recovering from Tommy John surgery, he walked six and struck out 21 in 20 minor league innings.

Finally, Kenta Maeda faces Noah Syndergaard as the Mets and Dodgers continue their series in Queens. Maeda pitched better on the road so far, with a 2.31 ERA in 23 1/3 innings. Only one of his five home runs allowed came on the road. Syndergaard owns the third highest K per 9 innings in the majors this season, 11.34. With very low walks and home run rates, Syndergaard is only surpassed in three-true outcomes by Clayton Kershaw.

Enjoy!

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Gotham Police Officer - Ready for The Table

Two models finished in two weeks? Some might call it madness, others might call it momentum. Either way, a second model on and off my desk inside a couple of sessions and it's Fat Cop from BMG.

He's not my finest work, but as the title says, he is ready to take to the tabletop, and in only 5 or 6 hours, which is an improvement in speed without sacrificing too much quality (I hope).

Up until this week, he had been sat awaiting paint since I took this picture last September.

I started off by working on the skin, which I'm getting better with, probably due to this being the third model in a couple of months that I've painted with a darker skin tone.

Once I had the skin tone sorted, I realised that I hadn't cleaned him up as well as I could have done initially, so his tonfa hand still has a load of flash on it but realising mid paint job I didn't feel like stopping for a 16 Rep model to be perfect so carried on.

One thing that did change was the tone of the uniform. Above in the old picture, he has quite a bright navy uniform but I moved in a much darker, muted direction with my current favourite combination of S75 Necro Grey, Rlyeh Grey and GW Fenrisian Grey. The shirt was Fenrisian Blue followed by a few washes of Ryleh Grey to mute it down slightly - a complete contrast to the GW Ice Blue it had been previously.

I kept the rest of his gear simple and dark to keep his face the focal point.

I also thought it was about time for a group photo. These guys are three of the four that will be going to the local gaming show next month (first wargaming show in Cumbria!) to take part on the demo table as I want to re-learn the game after being a year since my only two games.