Games of the Day

Given the rather high ERAs of the starting pitchers today, this looks like it could be slugfest Sunday.

Chris Archer and Jordan Zimmermann battle in Detroit as the Rays face the Tigers. Archer is an ace battling control problems this season as he walked 25 batters in 49 1/3 innings. With nine home runs allowed, his three-true outcomes stool stands on two very shaky legs. Zimmermann struck out just 15 in 28 2/3 innings at home this season, and the great number of balls in play appear to have led to more runs.

Cleveland and Boston offer one of the few good pitching match-ups of the day, with Danny Salazar taking on Rick Porcello. Salazar struck out batter at a high rate throughout his career, but in 2016 he appears to have learned how to limit home runs as well. It’s not clear why, however. He reduced line drives, and that reduction is going into more ground balls. He really hasn’t changed his arsenal of pitches, and in fact appears to be throwing more four-seam fastballs and fewer two-seam, sinking fastballs. It may be he’s doing a better job of training batters to recognize the four-seam pattern, and so the infrequent two-seam pattern messes up the hitter more, causing them to swing on top of the pitch and hit it into the ground. Procello changed his pattern, emphasizing the two-seam fastball more this season, and his strikeout rate sky rocketed.

Cole Hamels takes on Dallas Keuchel in what should be a battle of aces as the Rangers play at the Astros. Hamels pitches better on the road this season, with a 1.83 ERA away from Arlington. His strikeout rate is higher at home, but more balls fall for hits in Texas and leave the ballpark. Keuchel comes in with a 5.43 ERA, over twice as high as 2015. The big difference is his control, as he walked 25 batters already, after walking just 51 in 2015.

Finally, the Sunday night game features first place teams as the Cubs send Kyle Hendricks against the Giants and Madison Bumgarner. Given the Cubs offense, Hendricks 2-3 record with a 3.51 ERA seems out of place. The Cubs offense has not been there when he’s given up three or more runs in a game. Bumgarner is working his fourth straight season with an ERA under 3.00. In that time he held opponents to a .223/.273/.346 slash line, which drops to .206/.265/.313 with men in scoring position.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/1TPtDwH