Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my program produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN).

First, the log5 list:

0.346 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson
0.325 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman
0.324 — Jean Segura batting against Collin McHugh
0.317 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Jeff Locke
0.312 — Martin Prado batting against Jeff Locke
0.307 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.307 — Starling Marte batting against Justin Nicolino
0.306 — Josh Harrison batting against Justin Nicolino
0.305 — Melky Cabrera batting against Matt Harvey
0.304 — Hunter Pence batting against Mike Foltynewicz

Now, the NN list:

0.307, 0.757 — Buster Posey batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.286, 0.749 — Jose Altuve batting against Edwin Escobar.
0.346, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.300, 0.744 — Francisco Lindor batting against Colby Lewis.
0.306, 0.742 — Josh Harrison batting against Justin Nicolino.
0.325, 0.741 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.286, 0.739 — Joe Panik batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.255, 0.739 — Ben Revere batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.283, 0.737 — Matt Duffy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.287, 0.736 — Denard Span batting against Mike Foltynewicz.

I removed Dee Gordon and Michael Brantley from the NN list as they are not available to play.

If you look at the three-year stats for today’s starting pitchers, you see that Mike Foltynewicz has the double whammy of a very high BABIP with a very high home run rate. He is somewhat improved in 2016, but still is high in both categories.

The batter on the list that surprises me a bit is Ben Revere, who is off to a very slow start for the Nationals. With just 95 PA this season, his low Hit Average gets pulled a bit toward the MLB average. His previous two seasons were very good, so the NN is recognizing that his long term number is more important than his current year number at this point.

Once again, these lists are a guide. Use your own knowledge of ballparks, injuries, platoon advantages, etc. to make your picks.

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