Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my program produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. First, the log5 list:

0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha
0.344 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.340 — Josh Reddick batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.326 — Billy Burns batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.322 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.320 — Jed Lowrie batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.312 — Josh Phegley batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.305 — Xander Bogaerts batting against R.A. Dickey
0.304 — Stephen Vogt batting against Mike Pelfrey
0.304 — Buster Posey batting against Christopher Rusin

Now, the Neural Network (NN) list:

0.304, 0.759 — Buster Posey batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.287, 0.750 — Jose Altuve batting against Nicholas Tropeano.
0.322, 0.749 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.289, 0.744 — Joe Panik batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.291, 0.743 — Matt Duffy batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.344, 0.742 — Danny Valencia batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.326, 0.740 — Billy Burns batting against Mike Pelfrey.
0.272, 0.739 — Josh Harrison batting against Martin Perez.
0.284, 0.737 — Denard Span batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.279, 0.736 — Howie Kendrick batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.351, 0.735 — Daniel Murphy batting against Michael Wacha.

The log5 method I’m using does not like Mike Pelfry. The NN method doesn’t like Chris Rusin.

I publish these lists as a guide, a way to point you in the right direction. Rusin was on the list yesterday, then the Rockies pushed him back a day. Catchers, like Buster Posey, get lots of days off. I don’t have the disabled list memorized, so someone might pop up who is hurt. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/25qJhGT