Wednesday, August 31, 2016

3 Ways to Remove Bathroom Mold

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Knowing how to get rid of mold in showers, and keep it from returning, can save you both time and money. Here are 3 simple ways to remove bathroom mold.  Read on!

Image Source: Flickr

Image Source: Flickr

Scrub Away
To properly care for your bathroom and remove the mold from tile grout, you will need a good scrub brush and baking soda. To effectively scrub the mold away, treat the grout between tiles and the caulking with a paste made of water and baking soda. Leave on for as long as you need to—for example, very dirty grout can use an hour or two. Spray the tiles with water and use a scrub brush to clean the grout with a brisk back and forth motion. Rinse well and buff dry. Once you have scrubbed the grout, you can prolong your mold-removing efforts so that you do not have to use as much elbow grease next time! If your bathroom is not properly maintained between cleanings, it does not take long for mold to come back. In fact, think of mold prevention like oral care—we have to maintain our teeth to keep plaque away. Source: NaturallySavvy

Vinegar
Put mild white vinegar in a spray bottle without diluting it. Vinegar has a mild acidity, making anywhere you spray it very inhospitable for mold. Do not dilute the vinegar when placing it into the spray bottle; you want to use it at full-strength, not watered-down.
Spray the vinegar onto moldy surfaces and wait for an hour. If possible, let the bathroom air out during this time.
After an hour, wipe the area clean with hot water and dry the surface with a towel. Damp surfaces encourage mold growth, so be sure to wipe the area clean fully. After you have wiped the vinegar away, it should not smell anymore.
Use vinegar to prevent outbreaks of mold before they happen. Vinegar is reported to kill 82% of mold species, making it an exceptionally effective solution for preventing mold from inhabiting your bathroom like it owns the place. Plus, vinegar does not have any toxic fumes (like bleach) and is all-natural.

  • Simply spray a bit of vinegar onto a mold-prone surface and leave it. If you do this regularly, mold will have a tough time growing, and you will not have to remove it in the first place. Source: wikiHow

Hot Water and Baking Soda
You’ll need one teaspoon of washing up liquid, one cup of baking soda, and a few drops of something fragrant (we recommend lavender or citrus oil). Then add water and mix until the solution becomes a viscous paste and you’re done – a natural black mould remover. Source: Cleanipedia

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Unexpected Starts

Adam Morgan and Ricky Nolasco usually show up on the daily Beat the Streak picks as pitchers batters are likely to hit. Wednesday evening, however, both pitched well. Morgan allowed the Nationals three hits in in 6 2/3 innings, the home run, double, and single generated two runs. That was enough for Washington to win the game 2-1. Morgan came out of the game lowering the batting average against him to .307.

Nolasco went the distance for the Angels, throwing a four-hit shutout against the Reds. Thanks to no walks and a double play, Nolasco faced just three batters above the minimum. He lowered his BA allowed to .281. Neither pitcher walks many batters, which is a reason there is a high probability of getting a hit against them.



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Female Hardball

Via BBTF, women are succeeding in a men’s independent league:

Whitmore and Piagno both contributed to the Stompers’ success on the field, Whitmore with a key hit against San Rafael and Piagno by adding much-needed bull-pen depth. “I think I did well for my first time playing pro ball,” Whitmore said. “But there’s always more to work on and get better.” She then switched to her favorite topic: opportunity. “I’m very thankful for Francis Ford Coppola,” she said. “Without him thinking of putting women in baseball, none of this would have happened.”

Neither player was there on Saturday to join the pile on the pitching mound, because both had returned to the U.S. Team in mid-August in preparation for the Women’s World Cup, in South Korea. Piagno will be substitute-teaching in St. Augustine in the fall; Whitmore will be heading to Cal State Fullerton on a softball scholarship, and will work out with the baseball team. Both women plan to keep playing baseball at the highest possible level. Scott Whitmore has no doubt about his daughter’s goal. “I guarantee you, Kelsie would love to play major-league baseball.”

Fox will air a fictional series about the first female players in the major leagues. I hope we see that sooner than later.



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You Want Corn?

This may be the worst corn maze I’ve ever seen. It’s supposed to be David Ortiz swinging, but I don’t see it. I did a better job with my pumpkin a few years back. 🙂



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Coco Goes Home

Coco Crisp returns to his original team as the Athletics trade Crisp to the Indians:

The AL Central leaders sent pitcher Colt Hynes and cash to the A’s for Crisp, who began his career with Cleveland in 2002. The 36-year-old gives the club another switch-hitter, more speed and postseason experience.

Hynes is a 31 year old career minor leaguer. This was Oakland dumping some salary and getting some cash.

Crisp is no longer a good hitter. He might be a good late inning defensive replacement or pinch runner. I doubt the Indians will get much out of him offensively.



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Sinking the Mariners

The Rangers completed a sweep of the Mariners Wednesday afternoon with a 14-1 thumping. Seattle ace Felix Hernandez allowed six runs in four innings, and each of the reliever gave up at least two runs as the Rangers hit five home runs. They take the series by a score of 28-11.

The Rangers are now 11-4 against the Mariners this season, and with Seattle 11 1/2 games out of first place in the AL West, owe much of their deficit to their poor performance against the Rangers. The Mariners were gaining in the AL Wild Card race, but five losses in a row put them 4 1/2 games behind the Orioles, and they are seventh of the seven teams with a shot at one of the wild card slots.



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Games of the Day

The day starts with a great pitching match-up as Chris Sale leads the White Sox against Justin Verlander and the Tigers. Sale’s strikeout rate dropped quite a bit from 2015, but it’s so good he still yields very few hits. Verlander raised his K rate back up, making him a dominating pitcher once again.

Just a few minutes later, the Rays and Red Sox kick off with Drew Smyly facing Steven Wright. Smyly gets hammered by home runs. Fourteen of the twenty seven he allowed came with men on base, despite a good OBP allowed. Seven of the ten home runs Wright allowed came in Boston, where his ERA stands at 4.30.

Game number three of the afternoon see King Felix Hernandez taking on Texas as Martin Perez hurls for the Rangers. Hernandez has not lost a game since returning from the disabled list, and the Mariners need this win as they fade in a crowded wild card race. Perez’s high walk rate and low strikeout rate leads to a .340 OBP allowed, but his ability to limit opponents power somewhat limits the damage against him.

The evening festivities begin with Toronto and Baltimore playing the rubber game of their series with Aaron Sanchez taking on Yovani Gallardo. Sanchez is supposed to be on an innings limit, but winning now often trumps the future. He is 7-1 on the road with a 2.70 ERA. Gallardo comes into the game with a 5.69 ERA, but 3.69 in Baltimore. He’s only thrown 39 innings at home, however.

The best NL match-up of the day pits Ryan Vogelsong of the Pirates against Jason Hammel of the Cubs. Vogelsong owns a 2.25 ERA in his seven starts, compared to 4.91 out of the bullpen. Hammel owns a 2.31 ERA against the Pirates in two starts this season.

Enjoy!



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Cy Young Tumble

Cole Hamels appeared to be in control of the AL Cy Young race going into Tuesday’s action, but he allowed six runs in 4 1/3 innings against Seattle, dropping his Tom Tango Cy Young Tracker point value. Chris Sale is now just two points behind Hamels, so a good game by Sale today should put him in the lead. This is a very wild race in the AL this season.



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No Wave

Here is another reason to like Noah Syndergaard.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.376 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan
0.369 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan
0.343 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan
0.341 — Jose Altuve batting against Ross Detwiler
0.323 — Francisco Lindor batting against Pat Dean
0.321 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Bartolo Colon
0.308 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon
0.307 — Pedro Severino batting against Adam Morgan
0.307 — Jose Peraza batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.307 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ricky Nolasco

Log5 rates the Nationals against Adam Morgan very well. Morgan is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so there are lots of balls in play against him. This season, at least, that led to many hits.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.376, 0.780 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.341, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.369, 0.760 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.323, 0.741 — Francisco Lindor batting against Pat Dean.
0.321, 0.740 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301, 0.740 — Corey Seager batting against Jeff Hoffman.
0.308, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.343, 0.733 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan.
0.294, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.

There is quite a bit of overlap in the two lists, although Wilson Ramos gets knocked down a bit. Trea Turner continues to do well despite his small sample size. Note that Corey Seager is so good, he makes the list twice!

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.376, 0.784 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.341, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.369, 0.767 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan.
0.321, 0.745 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.323, 0.745 — Francisco Lindor batting against Pat Dean.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.343, 0.741 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan.
0.308, 0.741 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301, 0.740 — Corey Seager batting against Jeff Hoffman.
0.294, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.

All three methods like Murphy, and with a very high probability of a hit. There is still a better than 20% chance he doesn’t deliver, however.



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Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Is Cold Calling Dead?

In reality, this title is just clickbait.  It’s certain to draw all sorts of attention with pundits on either side of the issue.  Inevitably each shaping their “pro” or “con” arguments based on what they are trying to sell.

And every time we get into this discussion, we immediately dive in taking and defending positions without even defining terms to make sure we are talking about the same thing.

Before we can even answer the question and have a reasonable debate, we have to define, “What is cold calling?”

If we think of cold calling as:  Unprepared, random calls to pitch products to anyone who is foolish enough to pick up a phone—it certainly is not dead, at least judged by the volume of telephone, email, LinkedIn, Twitter and other solicitations I get.  But if this is what cold calling is, it should have been KILLED decades and centuries ago.  It is simply a waste of time and resource on everyone’s part.  It’s the functional equivalent of emails promising fortunes from deposed Nigerian government officials.

If we think of cold calling as:  Calls to someone we have never met before and whose day we are interrupting unexpectedly, BUT, it is well researched (both from an enterprise and individual point of view), it is to a customer well within our sweet spot, it is focused on the customer issues–and probably never even mentions a solution.  Further, it’s goal is to educate, provide insight, get the customer to think differently and to learn how they could improve.  In this case cold calls are what top performers do constantly, separating themselves from everyone else, creating true value and leadership for customers.  Cold calling, executed this way, can be one of the best ways we can serve our customers, as well as grow our businesses.

Some choose to define cold calling in terms of technology used.  “The cool kids don’t use old school technologies like the phone, snail or email.  All the cool kids are using social media and social tools.”  This is just a technology or implementation issue.  We can be equally obnoxious, ill prepared, and clueless using social channels as we are in using old school channels.  Or we can exercise great leadership and insight in any of these channels.  Use of a tool doesn’t inherently make the engagement better or worse, it just broadens our reach and enables us to create crap at the speed of light.

There are those who want cold calling to be dead–because it’s hard work!  You have to know your stuff!  More importantly, you have to know the customers’ stuff!  You have to know who they are, what drives them, what they are missing, what they can do better, how do engage them, how to be impactful and create value–and each customer is different, so you have to do this work for each and every cold call.

People in this category will cite endless statistics about negative customer reactions, falling response rates, and other data to argue against cold calling.  Oddly, they never look at the data from Value based, insight driven, well researched cold calls.  Their agenda is to prove cold calling is dead, so they can avoid doing the hardwork.

Some choose hedge words, “We shouldn’t cold call, we should warm call……”  Those of you who have followed me for some time, know my mind immediately goes to, “Does that mean we should only be calling on people in the tropics or desert climate–or perhaps we should be sitting in the tropics when we make those calls…..”  Sorry I couldn’t help myself.

No, the warm call advocates say, “You need referrals, you need introductions, you should never call someone that hasn’t been introduced in some way.”  Others say, “You shouldn’t surprise them, you shouldn’t interrupt them, you should stimulate them to reach out and ask.”

Well sure!  I’m not going to turn any of those down.  If I can get a referral or introduction, I’ll always leverage that.  If I can have someone reach out, it’s always and easier starting conversation.  We’d be fools not to take advantage of that.

But what happens if you aren’t getting them?  What happens if you don’t have enough to deliver on your goals?

You have to close the gap, as a result you have to cold call!  It is unacceptable to wait for the leads, the requests to talk, the introductions.  Spending hours a day on LinkedIn, trying to navigate the path to a “3rd order link,” getting an introduction and moving forward is a waste of so many people’s time and takes too much time.

We need to leverage everything we can in our prospecting.  Our networks, referrals, burning hot leads, warm leads—anything that enables us to engage the customer.

Inevitably we will always need more (I have not met any sales person in the last 5 years who is complaining of too much opportunity and too many qualified leads.)

We should be using cold calling as aggressively as we can—by that I mean the prepared, well researched, value driven cold calls.  We should not be uncomfortable calling someone we don’t know and who doesn’t know us.  We should not be concerned with disrupting their day.  It is our obligation and responsibility to reach out to these people to teach them, to let them know, “We’ve spent a lot of time analyzing your business, we think there are some tremendous opportunities you are missing…  We think you can grow by this amount, we think you might improve your operations by that amount, there is a way to improve your ability to serve your customers……”

Will everyone be interested, absolutely not.  But the yields on this type of cold calling are orders of magnitude better than the blind, thoughtless calls.  Customers appreciate them because they are about them–specifically.  They learn from them and while they may not be ready now, they might be ready in the future, welcoming engagement at the right time–and then you’d be having one of those “warm” calls.

Unless you are the sales professional I have never met (I’ve met 100’s of thousands) who has  too many qualified leads, cold calling is what will save you and enable you to make your numbers.

With top sales professionals, cold calling is thriving, alive, and kicking!  And the people doing it effectively are kicking a**!



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Tuesday, August 30, 2016

The Importance Of Hustle!

Hustle is both an important concept but a very unfortunate word.  To many, particularly prospects and customers, it has vey negative connotations.

Prospects and customers don’t want to feel “Hustled.”  Usually they take this meaning as being manipulated, cheated, or fooled.

Sales people who do this are often labeled “Hustlers.”

But there is an important, positive aspect of Hustle or Hustling.

It’s really a sense of obsessive and relentless focus and goal attainment.

That’s where a lot of sales people (and managers) get Hustle wrong.  They confuse Hustle with activity and busyness.  They seem to think hustle is about volume and velocity.  For example, how many calls can we make, how many meetings do we have, how busy are we?

Some mistake Hustle for how packed their calendar is with meetings–all scheduled back to back, with no time to move from one to the other.  The think a packed agenda is a measure of Hustle–in fact, the worst case I’ve ever seen is a senior exec that scheduled 3 meetings simultaneously–he would bounce from conference room to conference room.  You can guess how much he actually accomplished.

Multitasking is another false indicator of Hustle.  We’ve all seen the data on how badly multitasking impacts results.

People who really Hustle look a lot different.  They don’t measure success by activity–but by the right activities.  They are relentless in understanding what it takes to achieve their goals.  They are vicious in eliminating anything that detracts them from goal attainment.  They don’t waste time, thought, or resources on things that don’t contribute to their ability to achieve.

They are calculated in what they do–which means they are always examining what they do, how they do it, how they can improve.  As a result they are constantly learning, improving, tuning to produce better results, more effectively and efficiently.  They understand the difference between effectiveness and efficiency and know effectiveness precedes efficiency.

People who Hustle tend to be driven internally.  Quota is something the pass on the way to achieving their goals.  They don’t let themselves be distracted by obstacles, or difficulties, but figure out how to get around them (or avoid them in the first place.).

They know they have to constantly learn and improve, because their own internal drive compels them to to this.  While they celebrate their accomplishments, it’s only briefly, because they raise the bar on themselves, striving for more.

They recognize they won’t always succeed, so they learn from their failures, not seeking excuses or to assign blame, but to learn how to improve.  They don’t rest on their laurels.

Do you hustle, or are you merely busy?



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Who is Hitting .400

Here is a list of all 2016 batting averages for all players with at least one at bat. Of the 15 players with at least a .400 BA, only Josh Bell is a position player. Among the pitchers, kudos to Tom Mione’s 2 for 2, but especially to Pedro Severino with a 7 for 17, and a .400/.512/.657 slash line.

One point here is to show, once again, how tough it is to hit .400, even over a few at bats. Gary Sanchez, who is as hot as hitters get, is currently at .395. I currently estimate his chance of hitting .400 at somewhere between three and four percent. (That, by the way, is an extremely conservative estimate.) Bell, with just 27 AB, has a long way to go to catch up to Sanchez. It remains, at any level of playing time, one of the toughest feats in baseball.



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Unboxing the Goblin Rock Band from Hungry Troll

Another fun unboxing this week, but first up we're going to travel back in time

*Insert weird time travel music, synths and woooooOOOOOOooohs*

Back in Second Edition, when 40k was a little more wacky and didn't take itself so seriously Orks actually had rock band miniatures, the Goff Rockers. You can still get the miniatures from the GW site but they no longer have the rules. I've always been a fan of these models and in particular a diorama I once saw for them (which try as I might I can't find pictures of)



So fast forward to the end of last year, someone has shared a new Indiegogo campaign for a newly sculpted Blood Bowl team, Plague Fields. Some interesting miniatures but doesn't really appeal to me (check them out though if you are a Blood Bowl fan!). Suddenly I get down to the add-ons and I see a Goblin Rock Band! I couldn't resist, complete impulse purchase.

The miniatures all came in one plastic bag inside a cardboard box padded with bubble wrap. The miniatures are metal, let's take a look!


First up we have a goblin with bass guitar (shaped like an axe blade) based on Gene Simmons from Kiss, spiky platform shoes, tongue out.


Next the vocalist, complete with Mic stand (complete with bat wings) based on the legend that is Ozzy Osbourne, little details like Ozzy's signature long locks and glasses.


The first of the guitarists is dressed up like a schoolboy, based on Angus Young from AC/DC. He wears shorts, blazer and tie with a little spiky schoolboy cap.


Next up the drummer, he comes with a separate drum kit (complete with skull drums) and a little demon skull stool. He could be based on Slipknot's former drummer Joey Jordison, he seems to be wearing a boiler suit with some sort of face mask so it's the most likely influence.


Finally we have the second guitarist, who is clearly based on Slash from Guns N' Roses. Complete with his signature top hat. This is such a great little miniature.


The 6th member of the band is a grinning goblin in a pimp outfit (cane, hat with feather and trimmed cloak) compete with a little squig. I assume he's supposed to represent the band manager.


As you can see a characterful bunch! I love the influence of real musicians, being a big rock/metal fan myself. I'd love to do an interesting diorama of these guys some day.

Check out their website. http://ift.tt/1eOV4XX The Goblin Rock Band are listed in the Plague Fields section, they're currently unavailable but I imagine will be listed after the Indiegogo is fulfilled.



















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Games of the Day

Toronto tries to drive Baltimore further from an AL East division win as J.A. Happ takes Ubaldo Jimenez. Happ attempts to become the second pitcher to reach 18 wins in the majors this season. He is 2-0 against the Orioles this season, striking out 16 and walking just three in 14 innings of work. Jimenez comes into the game with a 6.62 ERA, the highest in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings. Toronto pummeled him this season.

The Marlins and Mets are tied at 2 1/2 games back in the NL Wild Card race as Tom Koehler faces rookie Seth Lugo. Koehler is in the midst of one of his best seasons as he kept his walk and home run rates low. Lugo is an old rookie at seasonal age 26. He’s shown power with 24 K in 28 2/3 innings, and has yet to allow a home run.

The Mariners try to chip away at Texas with James Paxton battling Cole Hamels. Paxton made a successful return from the disabled list his last time out, walking one and striking out five batters in five innings in a game the Mariners bullpen lost. Hamels shot ahead recently in the AL Cy Young race. Since the All-Star break he is 5-2 with a 1.59 ERA. His K, BB, and HR rates are all excellent.

Finally, the Yankees try to make up the game they lost to the Royals Monday night, while Kansas City tried to inch closer to a wild card berth. Masahiro Tanaka faces Edinson Volquez. Tanaka pitched well since the start of July, 6-2 in ten starts with a 2.70 ERA. Four time he pitched at least six innings without allowing a run. Volquez appears to be the designated innings eater for the Royals. Batters get on base against him, but he keeps their power in check. Otherwise his ERA might be runs higher.

Enjoy!



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Gold Running

Via BBTF, R.J. Anderson explores why Paul Goldschmidt succeeds as a base stealer:

The assumption to make, then, is that Goldschmidt possesses other qualities that manifest in his base-stealing success. He does. What Goldschmidt lacks in straight-line speed, he atones for with a combination of attributes that are tougher to measure, like his reaction time, his pattern-recognition skills, his opportunism, and his boldness.

I like that pattern recognition skills are included in the list. So much of baseball is about developing good pattern recognition skills, and often the big mistakes we see on the field (from players and umpires) is when a situation arises when the pattern recognizer fails. The two best examples I can think of were A.J. Pierzynski realizing that a third strike was seen by the umpire as dropped, and the blown call on Aarmando Galarraga’s perfect game. Nice to see this AI term making it’s way into the baseball literature.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.328 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman
0.325 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta
0.319 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Wily Peralta
0.317 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.311 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh
0.307 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.305 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson
0.303 — Jhonny Peralta batting against Wily Peralta
0.302 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright

Jhonny Peralta versus Wily Peralta? Peralta fans can only win!

The NN produces this list:

0.328, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.317, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.306, 0.724 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.291, 0.723 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Albers.
0.300, 0.723 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.311, 0.722 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh.
0.277, 0.722 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.307, 0.718 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver.
0.325, 0.718 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta.
0.278, 0.718 — Yunel Escobar batting against Timothy Adleman.

It’s looking like another Jose Altuve night.

The NN with park factored in produces this result:

0.328, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.317, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.306, 0.730 — Trea Turner batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.325, 0.727 — Yadier Molina batting against Wily Peralta.
0.291, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Albers.
0.311, 0.726 — Danny Valencia batting against Collin McHugh.
0.277, 0.726 — Mookie Betts batting against Jake Odorizzi.
0.300, 0.726 — Devon Travis batting against Ubaldo Jimenez.
0.307, 0.724 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver.

It’s nice to see the youngsters filtering to the top of the list, with Corey Seager and Trea Turner the 3rd and 4th choices. Altuve and Murphy once again come up 1-2. Note that DJ LeMahieu, despite battling Murphy for the batting title, is not on the list as often as Altuve and Murphy. That’s due to LeMahieu’s higher walk rate. Plate appearances that result in walks are PA that can’t result in hits, so the probability of LeMahieu getting a hit is lower than Murphy’s, even though they have nearly the same batting average.

As always, your best picks are going to fail to get a hit about 75% of the time. Good luck!



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Number Nine

Albert Pujols and four of his teammates homered in a 9-2 Angels rout of the Reds Monday night. For Pujols, it was his 586th home run, tying him with Frank Robinson for ninth on the all-time home run list. With five seasons left on his contract, he would need to average 35 home runs a season to catch Barry Bonds for the all-time lead. That’s probably not going to happen. He should easily get to 600, however, and I can see him passing Wille Mays at some point.

If Pujols stays moderately healthy he should end his career with over 3000 hits, 2000 RBI, top ten in doubles. It is possible he ends his career the only player with 700 home runs and 700 doubles. Although he is a slugger who gets on base at a high rate, he may not reach 2000 runs, something the top five home run hitters did accomplish.

A low strikeout rate helped Pujols maintain a .300 career batting average. He only strikes out 70 times per 162 games played. He never struck out 100 times in a season, and the only year he came close was his rookie year of 2001, when he K’d 93 times. That why he was able to hit .337 over a seven year prime.

We’ll see home high Pujols can climb the charts over the next five seasons. He already cemented his Hall of Fame induction, now we’ll see where he ranks with the greatest of all time.



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Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Monday, August 29, 2016

Do Run Run Run

FanGraphs looks at the Padres excellent base running in 2016. They do especially taking extra bases after contact:

The Padres are #1, at almost +16 runs; the Indians are second, at +10 runs. The Padres are six runs better than the next best team at this on the year; only four other teams are even six runs better than average by UBR this year. This is an area where the Padres are an island to themselves; no one is even close to being as good as they are this.

And the conclusion:

Advancing on contact isn’t a big enough deal to save the Padres lousy season, but it says something about the team that they’re this good at something so small in a throwaway season. I don’t know who is responsible for their success, but the Padres should probably find out and then figure out how to keep him in San Diego, because this is the organization’s one bright spot this year.

I will respectively disagree. The Padres rank 10th in the NL in runs scored. If you take away the 16 runs from their taking extra bases, they would still be tenth in runs scored. They rank 14th in OBP. Take the money spent on the running coach and find someone who can teach the hitters to get on base more.

Many years ago in a baseball abstract, Bill James looked at the average divisional finish for teams that led the league in a number of offensive categories. He then used those averages to rank stats by their importance in contributing to winning. Stolen bases were at the bottom, right behind triples. Hits and walks ranked high. In other words, getting on base is much more important than how you get around the bases. That’s why batters should learn to hit against the shift, and take ball four with a man on third and less than two out. Maybe if a team is a fringe playoff contender, the extra two wins from running will make a difference. For the Padres, it’s a waste of instruction time. Get them on base, then worry about running.



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The Yardless Goats

Gary Santaniello reviews the nomadic season of the Hartford Yard Goats.

In March 2015, Hartford’s soon-to-be first professional baseball team in 44 years announced to much fanfare that it would be known as the Yard Goats, an old rail yard term for an engine that switches trains between tracks.

As the team’s first season nears its merciful end, catcher-infielder Ashley Graeter has a more appropriate name for his club: the Yardless Goats.

That is because when its season ends on Labor Day, the Class AA Eastern League affiliate of the Colorado Rockies, which relocated after the 2015 season from nearby New Britain, will have played all of its 141 games on the road.

This was a good team that likely lost a chance to make the playoffs due to bureaucratic nightmare that is Dunkin’ Dounts Park. On the other hand, this may bode well for future Rockies teams. The Yard Goats manager Darin Everson on his team:

Everson, whose 14-year-old son, Jared, had been with him from spring training until he returned home to start school, said he was always conscious of his team’s “heartbeat” as the season progressed.

“They’ve been a really tight-knit group,” he said. “They have fun whether they’re on the field, in the dugout, out shopping, or razzing each other on the bus.”

Jemiola said, “It’s a good group of guys.”

I suspect this experience will make them a very tight knit group when they reach the majors.



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Who Owns The Customer Relationship?

We often talk about relationships in sales, saying relationships matter.  There are all sorts of phrases like, “people buy from people,”  which ascribe the importance of building relationships with our customers.

Yet, it seems that too much of how we actually manage the customer engagement life cycle seems to ignore the importance of developing relationships with our customers.  Instead, we focus on our efficiency in handling the customer.

It almost seems that we have an assembly line that we pass our customers along—we try to attract attention, building a relationship through our digital presence–web sites, blogs, other materials.  We complement that with the right content, theoretically nurturing the prospect to a certain “score.”  That’s followed up with a conversation with a SDR/BDR.  We have one or two conversations with them–certainly not enough to build a relationship–though they are well trained in asking “bonding questions.”  We are then passed to an AE who “knows us” based on the records in the CRM system.  This AE manages us for the next few steps–discovery, presenting the solution, closing.  The AE may bring in other resources to do demos.

Ultimately, we become a customer and customer success takes over.  Depending on what we have purchased, it may be a website with FAQ’s, it may be a team to help us implement–then another team after we have it installed and are using it.  Through their use of the product, the “relationship” gets passed from one person or department, to another.  The customer seldom deals with the same person very long, which leads one to ask, “what kind of relationship is being built?”

At some point the customer has to renew, or we want to sell the customer more, so other individuals, each specialists in their function work with the customer.

It all makes sense, it’s perfectly predictable, it’s very efficient–at least from our point of view.

In many cases, this may align perfectly with what the customer wants.  After all, they may want to minimize their engagement or relationship with us.   Hmmmm…….

This seems to work as long as things are working, but what happens when something goes wrong?

Yes, we’ve mapped out (hopefully) where the customer should go and what they should do if they have problems—“Call this number, go to this website, enter your customer id……  everything will be OK…..”

But what if it’s not?  What if it’s a problem not with just one person at the enterprise, but challenges the enterprise is having?

We may have that covered, we may have a team that works with them.  A specific number or micro-site to support them.  We create a customer experience—but somehow the “relationship” seems to be lost in many of these customer experiences.

And when these customers aren’t getting what they need, who do they go to?  Who, ultimately owns the customer relationship?

Or it works, the customer is happy with this process, they don’t need a relationship with us, they just want to get their work done.  We’re ecstatic, it matches the efficient transactional flow we have optimized our organization’s work efforts.

But still, the question remains, who has responsibility for the customer relationship?

Who’s ultimately responsible for making sure things go right?  Who’s responsible when they aren’t happy or need something different?  Who’s responsible for maximizing our opportunity to grow with the customer?  Who’s responsible for developing and managing the relationship–not just with the enterprise, but with people?  How do we build trust across our organizations?

It seems we and our customers–particularly, our most important customers are on divergent “relationship” paths.

We design processes that are efficient for us.  We worry about the customer experience in building these processes, but we don’t seem to think about the customer relationship.

We train our customers to think this is right, they learn not to value the relationships with us, consequently, they are open to any other relationships that may catch their fancy.

If relationships matter, if people do buy from people, how to we account for this in our design or our total customer experience (pre-post sale)?  Can these relationships be transferred on the assembly line, or do we have to look at individuals dealing with individual–preserving those links over time?

As you look at your customers, particularly those who you value the most, who ultimately owns the customer relationship?

Afterword:  Hank Barnes wrote a terrific piece on the same concept:  It is Time to Eliminate Hand-Offs in B2B Customer Management, Think “Leadershift”



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Games of the Day

Threes are wild as Toronto travels to Baltimore. The teams play a three game series, the Orioles in third place in the AL East, trailing the Blue Jays by three games. Marco Estrada takes on Wade Miley. Estrada made three starts against the Orioles this season, with some positives and negatives. He struck out 23 in 17 innings, holding Baltimore to 15 hits. He walked ten and allowed two home runs however, so the Orioles scored eight runs in those 17 innings. Miley allowed 35 hits in 22 innings since joining the Orioles, resulting in an 8.18 ERA.

The Mariners trail the Rangers by 8 1/2 games as they open a three-game series in Texas. A Seattle sweep would put the Mariners close enough to have a shot at winning the division in September, but it would also help keep them in the AL Wild Card race. For the second start in a row, Hisashi Iwakuma faces a fellow countryman, this time Yu Darvish. Iwakuma pitched well against Texas this season, with 22 strikeouts, six walks, and three home runs allowed in 25 innings. His is 1-2 in four starts, however, as despite a 3.24 ERA. Darvish allowed nine home runs in 65 innings, his big weak spot. His control is great, with 81 K and 19 walks in 65 innings. It’s a strong return from elbow surgery.

The Yankees and Royals are separated by 1/2 game in the AL Wild Card race as Michael Pineda faces Dillon Gee. The Yankees bring up the rear in the seven team WC race, 3 1/2 games behind #2 Baltimore, 4 1/2 games behind #1 Boston. Pineda gives up a ton of extra-base hits, but the big problem is that the slugging percentage jumps about 80 points with men on base. His timing of allowing extra-base hits is awful. Gee is the opposite, as opponents slug .541 against him with the bases empty, but just .373 with runners on base.

Enjoy!



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Better Late Than Never

The Blue Jays pounded the Twins from the sixth inning on in their three game series, coming back twice to win games and putting the game out of reach in the other. In addition to high batting averages, they pounded out seven doubles, a triple, and eight home runs. In the first five innings of the three games, they hit three doubles and three home runs. Winning the three games, while both Boston and Baltimore lost two of three, increased the Blue Jays lead to two games in the AL East. It also made the AL Wild Card race tighter, with 4 1/2 games separating the seven teams involved.



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Weekly Look at Offense

Week 21 produced 9.07 runs per game, bringing offense for the year to the 8.98 runs per game level. That held steady compared to 2015, producing 8.39 runs per game at the same point. The number of games played is exactly the same both seasons, 1947, so a comparison of home runs shows 684 more this year, 4537 to 3853, 2.33 per game in 2016 compared to .198 through 21 weeks in 2015. Home runs account for more than half the difference in runs. The rest comes from the increase in walks, which puts more men on base to drive in. Other hits (singles, doubles, triples) remain down, nearly 0.2 less per game than in 2015, but the increased home runs and walks mean more men are on base.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea
0.310 — Gary Sanchez batting against Dillon Gee
0.309 — Devon Travis batting against Wade Miley
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson
0.304 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields
0.303 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields
0.301 — Cameron Maybin batting against James Shields
0.301 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Pineda
0.299 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Thompson
0.296 — Victor Martinez batting against James Shields

Gary Sanchez makes the top ten for the first time. At 94 PA for the season, his .405 BA elevate him toward the top. In season hit averages are regressed toward the league average under 200 PA. At this point, Sanchez is starting to split the difference. Although the NN does not take this into account, Sanchez is on fire.

The NN produces this list:

0.321, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.307, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.290, 0.737 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309, 0.731 — Devon Travis batting against Wade Miley.
0.287, 0.728 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.303, 0.726 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields.
0.301, 0.726 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Pineda.
0.292, 0.724 — Martin Prado batting against Rafael Montero.
0.304, 0.724 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.282, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.

Sanchez is not far off this list, the NN rating his probability of a hit at .712.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.321, 0.767 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.307, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.290, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309, 0.735 — Devon Travis batting against Wade Miley.
0.287, 0.733 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.301, 0.732 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Pineda.
0.303, 0.731 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields.
0.304, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.292, 0.727 — Martin Prado batting against Rafael Montero.
0.299, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Thompson.
0.282, 0.724 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.
0.310, 0.721 — Gary Sanchez batting against Dillon Gee.

I listed the top 12 here so you can see how close Sanchez is to the top. Playing in Philadelphia seems to be helping the Nationals today. Altuve and Murphy are the consensus top picks, but as we saw on Sunday, the top picks didn’t do well. There’s a 25% chance a top pick will fail to get a hit. Good luck!



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Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Sunday, August 28, 2016

Age of Sigmar - Slaughterpriest



This week, I decided that I'd get back on with my Khorne Army for Age of Sigmar. This is a project that will see me through until the end of the year. I have had this Slaughterpriest on my WIP bench for a while, and this week seemed like the perfect time to finish it off.


This model has been a lot of fun to paint. I currently have another model like this which I aim to convert (it will likely be a head swap, and I may take the censer and chain off the left hand) and two of the other Slaughterpriest!

Completed Khornate Slaughterpriest

I have kept the colour palette very limited - Red, Black, Metal and Flesh being the main paint colour on this model. My entire army is painted to the Goretide colour scheme (red armour, brass trim and black cloth.)

I will have more of this army complete over the coming weeks.

Slightly off-topic, but who's getting the new White Dwarf? I'm going to try and grab several, as theres a Slaughterpriest (this model I believe) on the cover. You're getting an £18.00 model on the front of a £5.99 publication. Not a bad bargain!


Another close up of the flesh and bone details.

For the painting recipes on this model, you can find my Stage-by-Stage tutorials at the following link:
http://ift.tt/2bGfIOf

Why not tell me what you think in the comments section below?



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Games of the Day

The Yankees go for a sweep of the Orioles after two wins by wide margins Friday and Saturday. Kevin Gausman takes on CC Sabathia. Gausman looks for his first road win of the season, as he stands 0-9 with a 5.32 ERA on the road. His home run innings are about even, but he allowed 15 homers away and eight at home. However, in three starts against the Yankeed this season he owns a 1.31 ERA. Sabathia blew a little hot and cold over his last six starts, but more cold as his ERA stands at 5.11 in that period. His high strikeout rate can’t over come his high walk and home run rates.

The Indians try to split the four-game series with Texas in what proved to be an all or nothing series. The two Rangers wins were blow-out shutouts, while the Indians won game two 12-1. Danny Salazar and Derek Holland battle on Sunday. Salazar is one of three AL Pitchers striking out more than ten batters per nine innings. Holland pitched much better at home this year, with a 3.73 ERA in Texas versus 5.70 on the road.

Finally, the Royals and Red Sox play the rubber game of their wild card important series with Yordano Ventura facing Eduardo Rodriguez in prime time. Ventura turned his season around recently, with a 2.03 ERA in August. His ERA was 4.88 through the end of July. He upped his strikeouts and lowered his home run rate. Rodriguez, too, showed improvement, with a 2.52 ERA since the All-Star break. His ERA was 8.59 before the break. He went from allowing 9 home run in 29 1/3 innings to four home runs in 39 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!



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Good Week for Streaks

After Trea Turner collected hits in eight straight at bats, Dustin Pedroia collected 11 hits in a row to fall one short of the record.

With one more hit, he would have tied Boston’s Pinky Higgins, (1938), Detroit’s Walt Dropo (1952) and the Cubs’ Johnny Kling (1902) as the only players in history to have hits in 12 straight at-bats. But Pedroia hit into a 4-6-3 double play.

Pedrioa went through a career lull from 2012 through 2014 as he battled injury. He showed signs of a comeback in 2015, and now in 2016 he is rivaling the best years of his youth.



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Deer in the Headlights

The latest iteration of the Ken Phelps/Rob Deer/Adam Dunn hitter scored and drove in the only run of the game Saturday night as San Diego beat Miami 1-0. Ryan Schimpf homered in the fourth inning, and that was all Clayton Richard and the Padres bullpen needed for the win. The Marlins wasted a good start by Jose Urena.

Schimpf is now batting just .235 on the season, but like the players above, his batting average represents a tiny bit of his value. His OBP stands at .360 as he complements his 43 hits with 32 walks. His slugging percentage is .601, as 32 of those 43 hits went for extra bases, including 16 home runs. Yes, like the others, he strikes out a lot.

Where he differs from the above players is his defense. Schimpf plays second base, a skill position. The others were outfielders or first basemen who would up (or should have wound up) designated hitters. Schimpf does not appear to be a good second baseman, but with that kind of offense, a team can handle a few extra runs on defense.



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Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.357 — Martin Prado batting against Luis Perdomo
0.351 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis
0.343 — Dee Gordon batting against Luis Perdomo
0.343 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luis Perdomo
0.338 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo
0.336 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis
0.317 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Luis Perdomo
0.317 — Wilson Ramos batting against Chad Bettis
0.315 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Luis Perdomo
0.309 — Jean Segura batting against Homer Bailey

It’s a good day to pick a Marlins batter. Nice to see Trea Turner working his way into the top ten. Turner posts a high BA without walking much, making him a good candidate for a hit in any game.

The NN produces a similar list:

0.351, 0.769 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.357, 0.760 — Martin Prado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.343, 0.757 — Dee Gordon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.286, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Archer.
0.343, 0.741 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.336, 0.739 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis.
0.338, 0.739 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.301, 0.730 — Yunel Escobar batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.293, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.270, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Jon Lester.

Murphy and Pardo trade one and two, but both show very high probabilities of hits, as does Dee Gordon. I will note that Bettis allows fewer hits on the road than at home, so even with the park factored in the methods might be over-stating the Murphy probabilities.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.351, 0.772 — Daniel Murphy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.357, 0.765 — Martin Prado batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.343, 0.761 — Dee Gordon batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.286, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Chris Archer.
0.343, 0.748 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.336, 0.746 — Trea Turner batting against Chad Bettis.
0.338, 0.745 — Christian Yelich batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.293, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Lucas Giolito.
0.301, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Anibal Sanchez.
0.309, 0.732 — Jean Segura batting against Homer Bailey.

There is a agreement at the top, some small changes at the bottom. As always, your best picks are going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!



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Sunday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.



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Saturday, August 27, 2016

Cole Elbow

Gerrit Cole is off to Los Angeles to have his elbow examined, rather than making a start on Monday:

The source said the Pirates are not concerned about ligament damage in Cole’s elbow, but there could be a bone spur. He will see orthopaedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache.

The Pirates have not confirmed the news, first reported by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Before the Pirates’ game today at Miller Park, Cole said as far as he knew he still was in line to start a series opener Monday against the Chicago Cubs.

“Standard procedure,” Cole said.

Cole then said he had not thrown a bullpen session since his last start, which is not standard procedure.

Cole already spent time on the disabled list this season with triceps tightness. This is a blow to the Pirates wild card hopes.



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Max Mistake

With the Twins leading the Blue Jays 7-6 in the bottom of the eighth, Melvin Upton hits a sinking line drive to right with a man on base. Max Kepler dives for the ball, but it scoots by him for a triple. When Kepler runs back to field the ball, he kicks it away, and Upton scores. Kepler made two errors, but only one goes in the books.



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The Ridiculous Gary Sanchez

Playing in just his 23rd career game and 21st of the season, Gary Sanchez just hit his 11th home run. According to the Yankees broadcast, he is the first player in MLB history to hit 11 home runs in his first 23 games. In 2016, he is now 32 for 79 with 18 extra base hits, good for a .405 BA and a .911 slugging percentage. He is doing this as a catcher, a position not really known for it’s offense, unless you spent the last 90 years watching the Yankees. Sanchez is 23 years old, so the Yankees should get his entire prime. I doubt he will continue to slug .900, but a high BA catcher who slugs .500 will be extremely valuable.

The Yankees lead the Orioles 5-4 as the Orioles just hit back to back home runs in the top of the fifth inning.



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Games of the Day

The AL East/Wild Card race tightened up a bit on Friday as the Yankees won big against Baltimore, and gained on the Red Sox as well. The Orioles at the Yankees continues this afternoon with rookies Dylan Bundy and Chad Green. Bundy pitched five more innings as a starter than a reliever this season but gave up nine home runs in 43 stater innings, just three in his 38 relief innings. Green allowed all of his eight home runs as a starter, but his high strikeout rate keeps other hits very low. Seven of those eight homers came on the road.

The Cubs and Dodgers have a quick turnaround after playing extra innings Friday night and an afternoon game on Saturday. Jason Hammel takes on Julio Urias. Hammel goes for his 14th win, having already set a single season high for his career. He’s only 5-5 on the road, however, where his ERA balloons to 4.41. Urias is the third rookie featured today, and he struck out 62 in 57 innings since his promotion to the majors.

The Royals got back on the winning track Friday as they beat Boston. Today, the hot Danny Duffy faces the improving David Price. In his last seven starts, Duffy owns a 1.60 ERA with 46 K and 11 BB in 50 2/3 innings. Six of Price’s last ten starts qualify as quality, and he owns a 2.80 ERA in that stretch. He walked just 14 batter in that stretch.

Enjoy!



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Paint Recipes Index

Welcome to the Index page for our new paint recipes section!

Recently a group was founded on Facebook, dedicated purely to the sharing of painting recipes, from elaborate multi-glaze NMM to tricks and shortcuts for getting things on the tabletop in record time. You can find the group right here! We offered up the blog as a place to host an archive of the recipes shared - you're currently looking at the index of that very archive.





This page, as the index, will list all the different colours, items etc we have a recipe for, with a link to each section. Each section, for example black, will focus on that one colour or style and list the various recipes people on the group have come up with. If you fancy having a recipe in here, go put it in the group for everyone to try out :)

Some recipes might have stage by stage pictures, some might just have a picture of the finished article and a list of the colours used - it's entirely up to the individual posting the recipe. We're just here to collate them all into an awesome hobby resource to stop Facebook eating them all as they go down the time stream.

 Categories

To go to a particular page, please click the name of the page. All contributors are listed by their names given on Facebook.

Green
Contributions by Tom Berry 

Black
Contributions by Andy Thomson, Rob Dudden

"Unnatural" Skin Tones
Contributions by Andy Thomson


Non Metallic Metal
Contributions by Nick Steve Stevenson Rowe, Minisby Zach/Warzone40K

Bone
Contributions by Per Teutobod, Necropocalypse    

Metallic Metal
Contributions by Nick Moor, Ben Hodgkinson, Andy Thomson


Yellow
Contributions by Ben Cane


Power Weapons
Contributions by Tom Berry


"Natural" Skin Tones
Contributions by Andy Thomson, Necropocalypse

Pre Shading
Contributions by Andy Thomson


Red
Contributions by Necropocalypse


Leather
Contributions by Necropocalypse


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