Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.329 — Jose Altuve batting against Jameson Taillon
0.327 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis
0.307 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.306 — Hernan Perez batting against Chad Bettis
0.306 — Daniel Murphy batting against Dylan Bundy
0.303 — Corey Seager batting against Homer Bailey
0.303 — Jonathan Villar batting against Chad Bettis
0.296 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Triggs
0.296 — Scooter Gennett batting against Chad Bettis
0.296 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jimmy Nelson

Hernan Perez is a hitter with a batting average that makes up most of his OBP. That tends to give a player a high hit average. He’s been a bit hot lately, but his career is still a small sample size.

The NN produces this list:

0.329, 0.775 — Jose Altuve batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.306, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.303, 0.741 — Corey Seager batting against Homer Bailey.
0.327, 0.733 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis.
0.296, 0.730 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.296, 0.727 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.307, 0.723 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.274, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Blake Snell.
0.287, 0.715 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.285, 0.714 — Starling Marte batting against Doug Fister.
0.289, 0.714 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Jimmy Nelson.

The NN does a better job of filtering out players like Perez, with small career sample sizes.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.329, 0.773 — Jose Altuve batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.306, 0.746 — Daniel Murphy batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.303, 0.743 — Corey Seager batting against Homer Bailey.
0.327, 0.740 — Ryan Braun batting against Chad Bettis.
0.296, 0.739 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.307, 0.733 — Jean Segura batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.296, 0.731 — Francisco Lindor batting against Andrew Triggs.
0.287, 0.726 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.289, 0.725 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.274, 0.721 — Mookie Betts batting against Blake Snell.

Not much of a difference. It’s an Altuve and Murphy day. As always, 25% of the time your best pick will fail to get a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2bb853u