Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.341 — Paulo Orlando batting against Tyler Duffey
0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Kevin Gausman
0.311 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tyler Duffey
0.307 — Cheslor Cuthbert batting against Tyler Duffey
0.304 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rob Whalen
0.303 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.299 — Corey Seager batting against Jerad Eickhoff
0.298 — Eddie Rosario batting against Dillon Gee
0.298 — Jorge Polanco batting against Dillon Gee
0.296 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Dillon Gee

You know there are slim pickings when Kurt Suzuki makes the list. In reality, Kurt is having a pretty good year in terms of hit average, and Dillon Gee is not.

The NN produces this list:

0.323, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.341, 0.758 — Paulo Orlando batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.304, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rob Whalen.
0.299, 0.733 — Corey Seager batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.303, 0.729 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.311, 0.725 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.295, 0.724 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.277, 0.720 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Boyd.
0.272, 0.713 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Boyd.
0.275, 0.710 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Clay Buchholz.

That’s a more familiar group of hitters.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.323, 0.771 — Jose Altuve batting against Kevin Gausman.
0.341, 0.763 — Paulo Orlando batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.304, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rob Whalen.
0.299, 0.735 — Corey Seager batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
0.303, 0.733 — Yunel Escobar batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.311, 0.732 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.295, 0.728 — Francisco Lindor batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.277, 0.725 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Boyd.
0.272, 0.719 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Matt Boyd.
0.307, 0.718 — Cheslor Cuthbert batting against Tyler Duffey.

Altuve and Orlando are the clear consensus picks. Your best picks are not going to get a hit about 25% of the time, however. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2bfaNn8