Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea
0.310 — Gary Sanchez batting against Dillon Gee
0.309 — Devon Travis batting against Wade Miley
0.307 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson
0.304 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields
0.303 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields
0.301 — Cameron Maybin batting against James Shields
0.301 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Pineda
0.299 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Thompson
0.296 — Victor Martinez batting against James Shields

Gary Sanchez makes the top ten for the first time. At 94 PA for the season, his .405 BA elevate him toward the top. In season hit averages are regressed toward the league average under 200 PA. At this point, Sanchez is starting to split the difference. Although the NN does not take this into account, Sanchez is on fire.

The NN produces this list:

0.321, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.307, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.290, 0.737 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309, 0.731 — Devon Travis batting against Wade Miley.
0.287, 0.728 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.303, 0.726 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields.
0.301, 0.726 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Pineda.
0.292, 0.724 — Martin Prado batting against Rafael Montero.
0.304, 0.724 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.282, 0.723 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.

Sanchez is not far off this list, the NN rating his probability of a hit at .712.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.321, 0.767 — Jose Altuve batting against Sean Manaea.
0.307, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jake Thompson.
0.290, 0.738 — Corey Seager batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.309, 0.735 — Devon Travis batting against Wade Miley.
0.287, 0.733 — Mookie Betts batting against Matt Andriese.
0.301, 0.732 — Paulo Orlando batting against Michael Pineda.
0.303, 0.731 — Miguel Cabrera batting against James Shields.
0.304, 0.729 — J.D. Martinez batting against James Shields.
0.292, 0.727 — Martin Prado batting against Rafael Montero.
0.299, 0.726 — Trea Turner batting against Jake Thompson.
0.282, 0.724 — Dee Gordon batting against Rafael Montero.
0.310, 0.721 — Gary Sanchez batting against Dillon Gee.

I listed the top 12 here so you can see how close Sanchez is to the top. Playing in Philadelphia seems to be helping the Nationals today. Altuve and Murphy are the consensus top picks, but as we saw on Sunday, the top picks didn’t do well. There’s a 25% chance a top pick will fail to get a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2bZCijG