Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.352 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo
0.325 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.321 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Luis Perdomo
0.320 — Phil Gosselin batting against Luis Perdomo
0.318 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo
0.316 — Christopher Owings batting against Luis Perdomo
0.316 — Paul Goldschmidt batting against Luis Perdomo
0.313 — Corey Seager batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.308 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joel De La Cruz
0.308 — Welington Castillo batting against Luis Perdomo

Luis Perdomo brings out the best in hitters.

The NN produces this result:

0.325, 0.774 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.352, 0.748 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.308, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joel De La Cruz.
0.313, 0.744 — Corey Seager batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.294, 0.730 — Paulo Orlando batting against Ervin Santana.
0.307, 0.727 — Starling Marte batting against Jose Urena.
0.293, 0.726 — Martin Prado batting against Ryan Vogelsong.
0.282, 0.725 — Dee Gordon batting against Ryan Vogelsong.
0.294, 0.724 — Francisco Lindor batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.287, 0.722 — Yunel Escobar batting against Chad Green.

The two system agree on Altuve and Segura at the top, although the order is different.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.325, 0.773 — Jose Altuve batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.352, 0.757 — Jean Segura batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.308, 0.749 — Daniel Murphy batting against Joel De La Cruz.
0.313, 0.747 — Corey Seager batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.294, 0.734 — Paulo Orlando batting against Ervin Santana.
0.307, 0.733 — Starling Marte batting against Jose Urena.
0.293, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Ryan Vogelsong.
0.318, 0.729 — David Peralta batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.294, 0.728 — Francisco Lindor batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.282, 0.727 — Dee Gordon batting against Ryan Vogelsong.

Altuve and Segura are still at the top of the list, but the park makes Segura’s case a little stronger. Remember that your best picks will fail 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2b8eNXT