Scott Powers publishes a Saber Seminar presentation at The Hardball Times. He uses StatCast data to create a joint distribution for a batter pitcher match-up showing the probability distribution of batted balls by launch angle and exit velocity.
Now we have, for a given batter-pitcher matchup, estimators for the distribution of the launch angle and the conditional distribution of the exit velocity given the launch angle. The joint distribution, then, is just the product of these two distributions.
He also includes this tool that allows you to explore specific batter-pitcher match-ups, although the data right now is just through July. It’s something you might wish to check before making a Beat the Streak pick. For example, check out Yadier Molina against Adam Morgan, and you’ll see the prediction for line drives and a high wOBA. Great work by Powers.
from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2bCujsY
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