Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.376 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan
0.369 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan
0.343 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan
0.341 — Jose Altuve batting against Ross Detwiler
0.323 — Francisco Lindor batting against Pat Dean
0.321 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon
0.310 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Bartolo Colon
0.308 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon
0.307 — Pedro Severino batting against Adam Morgan
0.307 — Jose Peraza batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.307 — Brandon Phillips batting against Ricky Nolasco

Log5 rates the Nationals against Adam Morgan very well. Morgan is a low walk, low strikeout pitcher, so there are lots of balls in play against him. This season, at least, that led to many hits.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.376, 0.780 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.341, 0.777 — Jose Altuve batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.369, 0.760 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.323, 0.741 — Francisco Lindor batting against Pat Dean.
0.321, 0.740 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301, 0.740 — Corey Seager batting against Jeff Hoffman.
0.308, 0.738 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.343, 0.733 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan.
0.294, 0.729 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.

There is quite a bit of overlap in the two lists, although Wilson Ramos gets knocked down a bit. Trea Turner continues to do well despite his small sample size. Note that Corey Seager is so good, he makes the list twice!

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.376, 0.784 — Daniel Murphy batting against Adam Morgan.
0.341, 0.778 — Jose Altuve batting against Ross Detwiler.
0.369, 0.767 — Trea Turner batting against Adam Morgan.
0.321, 0.745 — Martin Prado batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.323, 0.745 — Francisco Lindor batting against Pat Dean.
0.305, 0.742 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.343, 0.741 — Wilson Ramos batting against Adam Morgan.
0.308, 0.741 — Dee Gordon batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.301, 0.740 — Corey Seager batting against Jeff Hoffman.
0.294, 0.738 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Ross Stripling.

All three methods like Murphy, and with a very high probability of a hit. There is still a better than 20% chance he doesn’t deliver, however.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2bADqhb