AL Wild Card Preview

Chris Tillman of the Orioles faces Marcus Stroman in the AL Wild Card game Tuesday night. The two offenses scored a similar number of runs, the Blue Jays finishing the season at 4.69 runs per game, the Orioles at 4.59 runs per game.

The teams offenses get to those points in slightly different ways. The Orioles are about hits and power. The team batting average came in at .256 with a .443 slugging percentage. They led the league in home runs by 30, hitting 253. They also posted a .317 OBP when the league average was .321.

The Blue Jays hit home runs as well, 221, good for third in the league. The hit more doubles and triples than the Orioles, but not enough to make up for the difference in home runs. They also hit less often than Baltimore, posting a .248 BA. When they excelled was in walks, 632 to the Orioles 468, giving them a .330 OBP. So while they collected fewer hits, they made outs less often. With similar power, those extra base runner turned into the 15 extra runs.

Tillman neither matches up well or poorly against the Blue Jays. His home run rate is lower than average, and his walk rate is higher than average. Despite a lower than average strikeout rate, he allowed a fairly low .244 BA. None of his batted ball number are remarkable, and his line drive rate appears to be a bit high. Tillman appears to be an average to below average pitcher, and his ERA was much lower than his FIP numbers. He would be, I expect, a pitcher that would give up 4.5 to 5.0 runs per nine against the Blue Jays.

That was not the case, however. Tillman allowed ten runs, nine earned in 22 1/3 innings. Toronto did hit three home runs and draw nine walks against him, but Toronto managed to hit just .143 against him with runners in scoring position. There was some luck involved, or just good timing of hits.

Stroman prevented walks better than hits in 2016, which plays into the strength of the Orioles offense. Indeed, the Orioles collected 33 hits against Stroman in 23 innings, drawing just four walks. Add four home runs, and Baltimore scored 18 runs, all earned. The Orioles hit .522 against Stroman with runners in scoring position. Just like with Tillman’s low number, there probably some luck involved in that. Even taking away the luck, I like this match up a bit better for Baltimore, especially if they keep the game close early. The Orioles pen is just a bit better than Toronto’s.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dnZBFX