Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.337 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver
0.315 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright
0.307 — Paulo Orlando batting against Josh Tomlin
0.306 — Trea Turner batting against Thomas Koehler
0.305 — Daniel Murphy batting against Thomas Koehler
0.301 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jimmy Nelson
0.301 — Josh Harrison batting against Adam Wainwright
0.300 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jose Berrios
0.297 — Jose Abreu batting against Jose Berrios
0.296 — Tim Anderson batting against Jose Berrios

A lot of regulars won’t be playing today, so check the pre-game lineups.

The NN produces this list:

0.337, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.305, 0.747 — Daniel Murphy batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.306, 0.743 — Trea Turner batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.301, 0.737 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.315, 0.732 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.307, 0.729 — Paulo Orlando batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.283, 0.722 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.285, 0.721 — Devon Travis batting against David Price.
0.288, 0.717 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.301, 0.717 — Josh Harrison batting against Adam Wainwright.

I’m guessing Seager and Travis play, because those games are important. Harrison and Murphy won’t play due to injuries.

With the park factored in:

0.337, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Jered Weaver.
0.305, 0.748 — Daniel Murphy batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.301, 0.745 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.306, 0.745 — Trea Turner batting against Thomas Koehler.
0.315, 0.736 — Starling Marte batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.307, 0.734 — Paulo Orlando batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.288, 0.727 — Charles Blackmon batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.283, 0.726 — Corey Seager batting against Matt Moore.
0.285, 0.725 — Devon Travis batting against David Price.
0.289, 0.722 — Jean Segura batting against Paul Clemens.
0.301, 0.722 — Josh Harrison batting against Adam Wainwright.

Good luck!

I plan to work on the model a bit more this winter to see if it can be improved. Thanks for following along, and I hope it helped some people do better at the game.

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