Playoffs Today

Rich Hill tries to dig a deeper hole for the Nationals, and Tanner Roark tries to even the NLDS against the Dodgers. Hill pitched brilliantly for the Dodgers in his six starts, striking out 39 batters in 34 1/3 innings, walking just five. He also posted a reverse platoon split for Los Angeles, the lefty hurler doing better against RHB. That’s not true for his career. Roark pitched very differently in 2016 than in his last full season as a starter, 2014. He struck out many more batters, but walks many more also. With about the same home run rate, this combination worked for him as he allowed fewer hits, resulting in a very similar ERA. He posted a 2.85 ERA this season, 2.83 in 2014. If you look at his Bases empty/Runners on split, he may have been walking hitters to avoid their power.

Corey Seager is the most likely Dodger to get a hit in the game given Roark starting, according to my neural network, while Daniel Murphy is the most likely Nationals batter to get a hit against the Dodgers.

At 4 PM EDT, the first elimination game of the LDS takes place as the Indians invade Fenway to try to send the Red Sox home for the winter. Josh Tomlin takes on Clay Buchholz. Tomlin pitches to contact, walking just 20 batters and striking out 118 in 174 innings during the regular season. Among ERA qualifers (162 IP), Tomlin induced contact 80.6% of the time, highest in the majors. Given that the Red Sox are both selective and high average hitters, this should be a good match-up for the Boston offense. Buchholz turned his season around late. He owned a 5.91 ERA through the All-Star break, allowing 17 home runs in 80 2/3 innings. Since, he allowed just four home runs in 58 2/3 innings, good for a 3.22 ERA.

Mookie Betts is the player most likely to get a hit with Tomlin starting today, and the most likely player in any game today. Francisco Lindor is the most likely player on Cleveland to get a hit against the Red Sox.

The second elimination game of the day takes place at 7:30 PM EDT in Toronto, as the Blue Jays look to sweep the Rangers. Colby Lewis tries to keep the Rangers alive against Aaron Sanchez. Lewis is a post-season veteran, owning a 2.38 ERA in nine appearances. He pitches carefully, walking a ton of batters but allowing very few hits. Sanchez makes his first post-season start, but pitched brilliantly in nine relief appearances in 2015, allowing just one unearned run in 7 1/3 innings.

Devon Travis is the most likely Blue Jays batter to get a hit today, while Adrian Beltre gets the nod against the Jays.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dCYMLW