The Ortiz Projection

David Ortiz posted one of the great seasonal age 40 seasons. Musings Marcels projected him to be very good. Marcels projected him with a .266/.350/.508 slash line. That’s an outstanding season in almost any era. Twenty five players this season posted a .350 OBP with a better than .500 slugging percentage. Ortiz’s actual slash line came in at .315/.401/.620. His great season was about the hits, not the walks. Ortiz beat his batting average projection by 49 points, his OBP projection by 51 points, so it was the hits that raised his OBP.

Marcels put him at 567 plate appearances. He came to the plate 626 time. He played a lot more than projected, and part of that is the great Red Sox offense giving him more opportunities in every game. Marcels showed with 131 hits and 65 walks. Ortiz collected 169 hits and 80 walks. Marcels projected 30 doubles, one triple, and 29 home runs. That would mean 45.8% of his hits would go for extra bases. Ortiz hit 48 doubles, one triple, and 38 home runs. So 51.5% of his hits went for extra bases.

Marcels did nail his HBP, strikeouts, and sacrifice flies.

Going into 2016, it looked like Ortiz would play an outstanding season. Despite the demands on his time due to the farewell tour, he far exceeded expectations. He was a player who often rose to the occasion, especially in a game situation. In 2016, Ortiz did it for a full season, and likely cemented his election to Cooperstown.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2dmbOuZ