Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.287 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson
0.286 — Jon Jay batting against Tom Milone
0.284 — Justin Turner batting against Tyler Anderson
0.281 — Kevin Pillar batting against Rick Porcello
0.281 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Hernandez
0.281 — Anthony Rizzo batting against Tom Milone
0.279 — Jose Altuve batting against J.C. Ramirez
0.279 — Albert Almora batting against Tom Milone
0.277 — Javier Baez batting against Tom Milone
0.276 — Jason Heyward batting against Tom Milone

The Log5 calculation produced a very different list today, as Daniel Murphy doesn’t make the top ten, although it’s not unusual to see Corey Seager at the top of the list. Tom Milone seems to be the pitcher to hit against on Wednesday.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.273, 0.722 — Daniel Murphy batting against Julio Teheran.
0.279, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against J.C. Ramirez.
0.281, 0.707 — Dee Gordon batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.287, 0.706 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.266, 0.700 — Mookie Betts batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.273, 0.698 — Brandon Phillips batting against Joe Ross.
0.274, 0.694 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Felix Hernandez.
0.273, 0.693 — A.J. Pollock batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
0.262, 0.691 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.274, 0.690 — Freddie Freeman batting against Joe Ross.

Quite a different list. Daniel Murphy is the top pick here, and against a very good pitcher. Altuve moves from seventh to second, Gordon from fifth to third, and Corey Seager drops to fourth. The Cubs against Tom Milone completely disappear. Seager appears to be the consensus choice.

Seager is the consensus pick. Remember, the best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2pANZpv