Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Tomlin
0.305 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard
0.303 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard
0.302 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christopher Rusin
0.294 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard
0.293 — Zack Cozart batting against Zach Davies
0.293 — Carlos Beltran batting against Josh Tomlin
0.293 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello
0.292 — Nori Aoki batting against Josh Tomlin
0.291 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard

It’s a good day to play for the Diamondbacks. Of course, lately, it’s usually a good day to play for the Diamondbacks. While I like to believe they are doing better through better analytics, the improvement may have more to do with the health of Peralta and Pollock.

Starlin Castro’s good start is putting him in the top ten. He is a high hit, low walk player, the kind who should be good at streaking when he’s hitting well.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.321, 0.742 — Jose Altuve batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.302, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.303, 0.723 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard.
0.305, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Clayton Richard.
0.294, 0.706 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard.
0.277, 0.704 — Brandon Phillips batting against Robert Gsellman.
0.293, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello.
0.274, 0.702 — Trea Turner batting against Christopher Rusin.
0.282, 0.700 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Wei-Yin Chen.
0.293, 0.699 — Carlos Beltran batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.267, 0.699 — Dee Gordon batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Altuve and Murphy come out even on this list. Altuve rates high due his his own bat and the poor quality of his opponent. Murphy owns the better bat right now, and is playing in a park that produces a lot of offense. Murphy ended the current NN streak at three as he went hitless Monday night. Maybe it’s a good day to double down.

At the other end of the spectrum, here are the players with the most plate appearances since their last hit (or since the start of the season):

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Chase Utley	30
Jeff Mathis	24
Marwin Gonzalez	23
Tyler Collins	20
Raul Mondesi	20
Danny Espinosa	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Alcides Escobar	16
Michael Freeman	16
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	15
Gregory Bird	15
Domingo Santana	15
Mark Trumbo	15
Cody Asche	15
Jaff Decker	14
Jesus Aguilar	14
Nicholas Franklin	14
Sandy Leon	14
Jabari Blash	14
Michael Taylor	13
Javier Baez	13
Khristopher Davis	13
Ben Revere	13
Hector Sanchez	12
Salvador Perez	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Leonys Martin	12
Brett Gardner	12
Ender Inciarte	11
Starling Marte	11
Chris Gimenez	11
Lucas Duda	11
Gio Gonzalez	11
Carlos Ruiz	11
Tyler Flowers	11
Ryan Schimpf	11
Antonio Senzatela	10
Kyle Higashioka	10
Conor Gillaspie	10
Jimmy Nelson	10
Rene Rivera	10
Wilmer Difo	10
Cristhian Adames	10
Josh Reddick	10
Travis D'Arnaud	10
Johnny Cueto	10
Matt Harvey	10
Tyler Chatwood	10

I don’t know how much longer the Dodgers can play Chase Utley at second base. Chase should take a cue from the career of Mike Schmidt. Schmidt played poorly in April in his last season, and knew his career was over. He was smart enough to hang up his spikes at that point. I supposed that since Utley is making $2 million, he might just let the Dodgers release him instead.

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