Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.302 — Eric Thames batting against Adam Wainwright
0.302 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright
0.295 — Manuel Pina batting against Adam Wainwright
0.291 — Jose Altuve batting against Alexander Cobb
0.280 — Jett Bandy batting against Adam Wainwright
0.278 — Jesus Aguilar batting against Adam Wainwright
0.278 — Travis Shaw batting against Adam Wainwright
0.277 — Hernan Perez batting against Adam Wainwright
0.275 — Yunel Escobar batting against Mat Latos
0.273 — Josh Reddick batting against Alexander Cobb

The Log5 Method likes the Brewers agianst Adam Wainwright, which is sad given how great Wainwright pitched throughout his career. Wainwright allowed 24 hits this season in 13 2/3 innings. His batting average allowed is .393. Even performing regression on his hit average, the Log5 method is setting him at .262 this season, which is extremely high given his lack of batters faced.

It’s always good to see the official Baseball Musings favorite player of the year, Jett Bandy, make the list.

The NN with Park sees things differently:

0.291, 0.719 — Jose Altuve batting against Alexander Cobb.
0.266, 0.713 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.302, 0.707 — Ryan Braun batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.266, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.272, 0.704 — Mookie Betts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.275, 0.700 — Yunel Escobar batting against Mat Latos.
0.268, 0.697 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Dylan Bundy.
0.266, 0.693 — Nolan Arenado batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.263, 0.691 — Corey Seager batting against Taijuan Walker.
0.256, 0.690 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.271, 0.690 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jose Quintana.

The NN puts more weight on the hitter than the pitcher, and I believe puts more weight on long-term success. Thames and Pina do make the top 20 on the NN list, however. Braun appears to be the consensus choice, with Altuve nearly equal. No matter who you pick, there is a better that 25% chance the batter will end your streak.

The NN, after starting the season well, is now on a three-day losing streak. We will see if Altuve can turn that around this evening.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2otgy4p