Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.314 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Anderson
0.305 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson
0.296 — Christopher Owings batting against Tyler Anderson
0.295 — Brandon Drury batting against Tyler Anderson
0.295 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova
0.294 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Tyler Anderson
0.294 — Jose Ramirez batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.293 — Jon Jay batting against Steven Wright
0.289 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Phil Hughes
0.287 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zack Wheeler
0.287 — Michael Moustakas batting against Phil Hughes
0.287 — Francisco Lindor batting against Yovani Gallardo

It’s a good day to be a Diamondbacks hitter. Anderson gave up hits at a higher rate on the road this season. Note that Paul Goldschmidt does not make the list. His batting average is similar to his teammates, but he walks a lot more, so he’s less likely to get a hit in a plate appearance.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.314, 0.737 — A.J. Pollock batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.287, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.295, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ivan Nova.
0.305, 0.721 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.283, 0.715 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jimmy Nelson.
0.271, 0.713 — Trea Turner batting against Zack Wheeler.
0.284, 0.712 — Dee Gordon batting against Ivan Nova.
0.294, 0.712 — Jose Ramirez batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.295, 0.708 — Brandon Drury batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.294, 0.706 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Tyler Anderson.

It’s a rare day that Daniel Murphy doesn’t come out on top, but Pollock is the unanimous pick. Note that of the five Diamondbacks in the Log5 list, Chris Owings is the only one that does not make the NN list. The difference between Owings and his teammates is that his short-term average is higher than his long-term average. At least where batters are concerned, the NN appears to correctly value long-term ability higher.

As always, your best pick is going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is a list of the players with at least 10 consecutive PA without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Jeff Mathis	28
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	20
Sandy Leon	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Michael Freeman	16
Brad Miller	16
Jesus Aguilar	16
Chris Gimenez	15
Cody Asche	15
Carlos Ruiz	14
Cristhian Adames	14
Marcell Ozuna	13
Ian Kinsler	13
Rene Rivera	13
Matt Davidson	13
Nick Hundley	13
Leonys Martin	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Brandon Guyer	12
Antonio Senzatela	12
Nomar Mazara	12
DJ LeMahieu	11
Matt Harvey	11
Jon Lester	11
Starling Marte	11
Clayton Kershaw	11
Johnny Cueto	11
Kyle Higashioka	11
Lucas Duda	11
Jorge Polanco	10
Jeff Samardzija	10
Scott Feldman	10
Patrick Corbin	10
Max Scherzer	10
Ryan Goins	10
Jimmy Nelson	10

Good luck!

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