Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.294 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey
0.285 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard
0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker
0.280 — Wil Myers batting against Patrick Corbin
0.276 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Cashner
0.275 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard
0.273 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard
0.272 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies
0.271 — Chris Owings batting against Clayton Richard
0.271 — Asdrubal Cabrera batting against Aaron Nola

Despite his two-day slump, Daniel Murphy remains at the top of the Log5 list. Log5 does tend to focus on a particular opposing pitcher, and today the eyes fall on Clayton Richard. He is hittable, and in his better years issues few walks. It might be a good day to go with a Diamondbacks player.

The NN with Park produces this list:

0.294, 0.730 — Daniel Murphy batting against R.A. Dickey.
0.282, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Matthew Shoemaker.
0.285, 0.706 — A.J. Pollock batting against Clayton Richard.
0.276, 0.699 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.269, 0.694 — Yunel Escobar batting against Lance McCullers.
0.275, 0.686 — Yasmany Tomas batting against Clayton Richard.
0.273, 0.684 — Brandon Drury batting against Clayton Richard.
0.272, 0.684 — Yadier Molina batting against Zach Davies.
0.244, 0.683 — Mookie Betts batting against Marco Estrada.
0.268, 0.680 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Scott Feldman.
0.280, 0.680 — Wil Myers batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.248, 0.680 — Brandon Phillips batting against Stephen Strasburg.

Two similar lists, especially at the top. Once again, Daniel Murphy is the consensus pick. I like that Brandon Phillips comes up against Stephen Strasburg. Phillips is a low-walk batter, Strasburg is a low-walk pitcher, so if a player doesn’t strike out, he might get a hit on a ball in play against Strasburg.

If you click on the spreadsheet link above, you’ll see that after 16 days, the NN is performing as expected in terms of picking the best player every day. The expectation was for hits in 11.7 games, and there have been hits in 12 of them. That reminds us that your best pick has a 25% chance of walking away from the game without a hit. Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2oSQReN