Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.282 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez
0.281 — Yunel Escobar batting against Charlie Morton
0.279 — Francisco Lindor batting against Kyle Gibson
0.275 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver
0.273 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson
0.272 — Aledmys Diaz batting against Ivan Nova
0.272 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova
0.271 — Dee Gordon batting against Ariel Miranda
0.266 — Wil Myers batting against Jaime Garcia
0.265 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ariel Miranda
0.265 — Carlos Beltran batting against Jesse Chavez

On a day without Daniel Murphy, Jose Altuve returns to the top of the pack. Altuve is 7 for 20 against Chavez with no walks or other non-AB plate appearances, so that’s also his hit average against Chavez. Yunel Escobar keeps coming up on these lists. He’s putting together a very good run for someone in his middle 30s, basically peaking very late. Again, he is a good batter for this type of analysis as he owns a high batting average in that time and doesn’t walk all that much. Most of his high OBP comes from his hits. Francisco Lindor is tied with three others for the longest current hit streak in the majors at 10.

The NN with Park creates this list:

0.282, 0.715 — Jose Altuve batting against Jesse Chavez.
0.281, 0.703 — Yunel Escobar batting against Charlie Morton.
0.271, 0.702 — Dee Gordon batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.279, 0.701 — Francisco Lindor batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.275, 0.701 — Brandon Phillips batting against Jered Weaver.
0.273, 0.693 — Jose Ramirez batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.262, 0.692 — Corey Seager batting against Robbie Ray.
0.265, 0.691 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.244, 0.685 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Blake Snell.
0.272, 0.685 — Yadier Molina batting against Ivan Nova.

There is perfect agreement for the one and two slots, and in general between the two lists. Corey Seager and Xander Bogaerts do make the cut here, while they didn’t by the Log5 method. Note that the probabilities are pretty low today, compared to what gets generated when Murphy bats.

As always, there is a fairly high probability (>25%) that the best pick of the day won’t get a hit. This is meant to be a guide, a starting point for your research. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2oDqcmd