Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.292 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello
0.287 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Chatwood
0.285 — Zack Cozart batting against Wily Peralta
0.284 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Edinson Volquez
0.283 — Brandon Phillips batting against Noah Syndergaard
0.279 — Eugenio Suarez batting against Wily Peralta
0.277 — Jonathan Schoop batting against Alexander Cobb
0.277 — Corey Seager batting against Johnny Cueto
0.275 — Adam Jones batting against Alexander Cobb
0.275 — Jacoby Ellsbury batting against Rick Porcello

I have to say I’m a bit surprised to see two Yankees making the top ten against the 2016 AL Cy Young Award winner. Then again, in two of the last three seasons (counting 2017), Porcello allowed a fairly high batting average with few walks, the type of pitcher who should produce a high hit average. I’m more surprised to see Ellsbury than Castro on the list, since Ellsbury was not that good a hitter the previous two seasons.

The NN with Park modifies the list like this:

0.287, 0.733 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.274, 0.712 — Jose Altuve batting against Trevor Bauer.
0.283, 0.709 — Brandon Phillips batting against Noah Syndergaard.
0.266, 0.708 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Tanner Roark.
0.292, 0.704 — Starlin Castro batting against Rick Porcello.
0.277, 0.703 — Corey Seager batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.264, 0.700 — Trea Turner batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.268, 0.700 — Jean Segura batting against Daniel Norris.
0.284, 0.700 — Cesar Hernandez batting against Edinson Volquez.
0.259, 0.699 — Mookie Betts batting against Luis Severino.

Note that the NN agrees with me on Ellsbury, as it drops him way down the list with a probability of a hit int he game at .672. Daniel Murphy appears to be the consensus pick, with Starlin Castro second. As always, your best pick will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the latest list of players that currently have the longest streak of plate appearances without a hit:

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Chase Utley	30
Jeff Mathis	24
Marwin Gonzalez	23
Alcides Escobar	20
Domingo Santana	20
Raul Mondesi	20
Mark Trumbo	19
JaCoby Jones	19
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	19
Khristopher Davis	17
Nicholas Franklin	16
Michael Freeman	16
Greg Bird	15
Cody Asche	15
Jesus Aguilar	15
Kevin Kiermaier	14
Yunel Escobar	14
Sandy Leon	14
Michael Taylor	14
Eduardo Nunez	13
Ben Revere	13
Javier Baez	13
Martin Maldonado	12
Leonys Martin	12
Anthony Rizzo	12
Tucker Barnhart	12
Brett Gardner	12
Jhonny Peralta	12
Hector Sanchez	12
J.J. Hardy	12
Clayton Kershaw	11
Tyler Flowers	11
Jefry Marte	11
Conor Gillaspie	11
Gio Gonzalez	11
Edwin Encarnacion	11
Starling Marte	11
Lucas Duda	11
Chris Gimenez	11
Cristhian Adames	11
Ender Inciarte	11
Carlos Ruiz	11
Ryan Schimpf	11
Jimmy Nelson	10
Tyler Chatwood	10
Johnny Cueto	10
Matt Harvey	10
Kyle Higashioka	10
Lorenzo Cain	10
Patrick Corbin	10
Wilmer Difo	10
Antonio Senzatela	10
Rene Rivera	10
Travis D'Arnaud	10
Scott Feldman	10

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2phnUJO