Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.300 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo
0.290 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo
0.286 — Brandon Phillips batting against Chase Anderson
0.285 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Kyle Gibson
0.284 — Michael Moustakas batting against Kyle Gibson
0.283 — Eduardo Nunez batting against Luis Perdomo
0.283 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom
0.280 — Corey Dickerson batting against Marcus Stroman
0.279 — Ryan Braun batting against Bartolo Colon
0.278 — Joe Panik batting against Luis Perdomo

Luis Perdomo, as usual, is the pitcher to face in this contest. He usually dominates the top ten a bit more, which may say something about the state of the Giants offense. Buster Posey came back strong from his concussion, which is why he moves to the top of the list.

The NN with Park produces this top ten list:

0.283, 0.731 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.286, 0.719 — Brandon Phillips batting against Chase Anderson.
0.300, 0.718 — Buster Posey batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.277, 0.712 — A.J. Pollock batting against Kyle Freeland.
0.277, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jameson Taillon.
0.266, 0.708 — Trea Turner batting against Jacob deGrom.
0.265, 0.707 — Jose Altuve batting against Jharel Cotton.
0.271, 0.707 — Charles Blackmon batting against Robbie Ray.
0.266, 0.705 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Robbie Ray.
0.290, 0.703 — Hunter Pence batting against Luis Perdomo.

Daniel Murphy springs to the top of this chart as usual, despite facing a tough pitcher in Jacob deGrom. In a very small sample size, Murphy is 2 for 3 against the Mets starter. Posey is 2 for 6 against Perdomo. Posey is the consensus pick on the day, with Brandon Phillips a close second. Phillips is 3 for 11 against Chase Anderson, but Phillips puts the ball in play with just one strikeout.

As always, the best player you pick is going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

Here is the list of players with at least 10 plate appearances since their last hit. If the two lists intersection, such as with DJ LeMahieu, maybe that player is due!

Batter	PA since Last Hit
Jeff Mathis	28
Mark Trumbo	24
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	23
Raul Mondesi	20
Kevin Kiermaier	20
Sandy Leon	20
Domingo Santana	20
JaCoby Jones	19
Travis D'Arnaud	16
Michael Freeman	16
Jesus Aguilar	15
Lorenzo Cain	15
Cody Asche	15
Chris Gimenez	15
Conor Gillaspie	14
Carlos Ruiz	14
Cristhian Adames	13
Jackie Bradley, Jr.	13
Asdrubal Cabrera	13
Rene Rivera	13
Jhonny Peralta	12
Mike Napoli	12
Leonys Martin	12
Antonio Senzatela	12
J.J. Hardy	12
Starling Marte	11
Brad Miller	11
Clayton Kershaw	11
Matt Harvey	11
Lucas Duda	11
Kyle Schwarber	11
Johnny Cueto	11
Jon Lester	11
Kyle Higashioka	10
Jacoby Ellsbury	10
Jimmy Nelson	10
Nick Castellanos	10
DJ LeMahieu	10
Cameron Rupp	10
Marcell Ozuna	10
Scott Feldman	10
Stephen Piscotty	10
Patrick Corbin	10

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ptfW23