Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2017, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.321 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.296 — Dee Gordon batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.291 — Francisco Lindor batting against Phil Hughes
0.290 — Jose Ramirez batting against Phil Hughes
0.288 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Yovani Gallardo
0.283 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Cain
0.282 — Starlin Castro batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.281 — Robinson Cano batting against Wei-Yin Chen
0.279 — Ryan Braun batting against Brett Anderson
0.279 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Yovani Gallardo

Daniel Murphy returns to action on Tuesday, and outclasses the rest of the field in terms of Log5 hit average. I’m glad to see Francisco Lindor near the top, as Phil Hughes is a pitcher who issues few walks, giving batters something to hit. Lindor is tied with Mitch Haniger for the longest current hit streak with 11. Haniger is not the kind of hitter to make this list, since he draws a high number of walks, which cuts down on his opportunity for hits. Also, as it is early in his career, he is being regressed heavily toward the league hit average.

The NN with Park produces this top ten list:

0.321, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.296, 0.723 — Jose Altuve batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.296, 0.720 — Dee Gordon batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.291, 0.712 — Francisco Lindor batting against Phil Hughes.
0.290, 0.710 — Jose Ramirez batting against Phil Hughes.
0.288, 0.706 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Yovani Gallardo.
0.274, 0.703 — Mookie Betts batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.283, 0.702 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Matt Cain.
0.269, 0.700 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
0.272, 0.698 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Marcus Stroman.

There is unusually good agreement today between the two systems, with Daniel Murphy the consensus pick. Remember, even the best pick is going to fail to get a hit about 25% of the time.

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ooCME8