Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.346 — Paulo Orlando batting against Tyler Duffey
0.319 — Cheslor Cuthbert batting against Tyler Duffey
0.315 — Devon Travis batting against Collin McHugh
0.311 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tyler Duffey
0.305 — Martin Prado batting against James Shields
0.302 — Eric Hosmer batting against Tyler Duffey
0.302 — J.T. Realmuto batting against James Shields
0.300 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rob Whalen
0.298 — Christian Yelich batting against James Shields
0.297 — Whit Merrifield batting against Tyler Duffey

Log5 produces some unusual names today, Cheslor Cuthbert, having a pretty good year for the Royals. He is the kind of high BA, low OBP player that is perfect for producing a high hit average.

The NN produces this list:

0.346, 0.760 — Paulo Orlando batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.283, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.300, 0.743 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rob Whalen.
0.315, 0.731 — Devon Travis batting against Collin McHugh.
0.293, 0.729 — Dee Gordon batting against James Shields.
0.305, 0.729 — Martin Prado batting against James Shields.
0.289, 0.724 — Corey Seager batting against Gerrit Cole.
0.292, 0.723 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.311, 0.722 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.302, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against James Shields.

Cuthbert just misses the cut, tied for 11th with Xander Bogaerts at at .721 probability of getting a hit. So far, the two methods agree that facing Tyler Duffey or James Shields helps batter get hits.

The NN with park factored in produces this result:

0.346, 0.765 — Paulo Orlando batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.283, 0.748 — Jose Altuve batting against Aaron Sanchez.
0.300, 0.745 — Daniel Murphy batting against Rob Whalen.
0.315, 0.735 — Devon Travis batting against Collin McHugh.
0.305, 0.732 — Martin Prado batting against James Shields.
0.293, 0.730 — Dee Gordon batting against James Shields.
0.319, 0.730 — Cheslor Cuthbert batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.311, 0.730 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.292, 0.727 — Yunel Escobar batting against Michael Clevinger.
0.285, 0.726 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Archie Bradley.
0.302, 0.726 — J.T. Realmuto batting against James Shields.

The park brings Cuthbert back into the top ten. It looks like Orlando and Travis are the consensus top picks, however. Your best picks will fail to get a hit about 25% of the time, however. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aTzMe9