Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.331 — Evan Longoria batting against Luis Perdomo
0.323 — Logan Forsythe batting against Luis Perdomo
0.321 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Norris
0.319 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.316 — Matt M Duffy batting against Luis Perdomo
0.307 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.305 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon
0.304 — Brad Miller batting against Luis Perdomo
0.303 — Mookie Betts batting against Josh Tomlin

There were a number of batters tied at .303, almost all against Perdomo. It pretty clear that every five days, Perdomo is the pitcher Log5 wants to face.

The NN produces this list:

0.321, 0.754 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Norris.
0.319, 0.752 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.303, 0.730 — Mookie Betts batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.307, 0.722 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.291, 0.718 — Devon Travis batting against Chad Green.
0.331, 0.717 — Evan Longoria batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.305, 0.716 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298, 0.714 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.302, 0.710 — Sandy Leon batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.316, 0.710 — Matt M Duffy batting against Luis Perdomo.

More like the usual suspects. If you want a player on the Red Sox against Tomlin, pick early since it is an afternoon game.

The NN with park factored in adjusts the list like this:

0.319, 0.759 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.321, 0.757 — Paulo Orlando batting against Daniel Norris.
0.303, 0.735 — Mookie Betts batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.301, 0.733 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.307, 0.729 — Robinson Cano batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.305, 0.727 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon.
0.298, 0.725 — Wilson Ramos batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.331, 0.725 — Evan Longoria batting against Luis Perdomo.
0.291, 0.721 — Devon Travis batting against Chad Green.
0.302, 0.718 — Sandy Leon batting against Josh Tomlin.

Orlando and Murphy seem to be the consensus picks, but Bogaerts and Betts get your day done early. As always, 25% of the time your best pick will fail to get a hit. Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aXrqlw