Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.350 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain
0.330 — Martin Prado batting against Chad Bettis
0.330 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chad Bettis
0.322 — Christian Yelich batting against Chad Bettis
0.321 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain
0.320 — Dee Gordon batting against Chad Bettis
0.315 — Jean Segura batting against Matt Garza
0.312 — Ryan Braun batting against Patrick Corbin
0.308 — Marcell Ozuna batting against Chad Bettis
0.307 — Ichiro Suzuki batting against Chad Bettis

Ichiro has been stuck on 2998 hits for a while. Maybe tonight is the night he collects those two hits. The Marlins are in Colorado against a high hit average pitcher.

The NN produces this list:

0.350, 0.772 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.292, 0.753 — Jose Altuve batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.320, 0.747 — Dee Gordon batting against Chad Bettis.
0.330, 0.742 — Martin Prado batting against Chad Bettis.
0.330, 0.739 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chad Bettis.
0.322, 0.733 — Christian Yelich batting against Chad Bettis.
0.321, 0.727 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain.
0.300, 0.725 — Corey Seager batting against Eduardo Rodriguez.
0.312, 0.723 — Ryan Braun batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.283, 0.723 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ross Stripling.

The NN likes the Marlins against Chad Bettis as well, but Jose Altuve makes it to the top of the list.

The NN taking the park into consideration modifies the list like this:

0.350, 0.774 — Daniel Murphy batting against Matt Cain.
0.320, 0.755 — Dee Gordon batting against Chad Bettis.
0.330, 0.753 — Martin Prado batting against Chad Bettis.
0.292, 0.751 — Jose Altuve batting against Lucas Harrell.
0.330, 0.751 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Chad Bettis.
0.322, 0.744 — Christian Yelich batting against Chad Bettis.
0.321, 0.734 — Wilson Ramos batting against Matt Cain.
0.312, 0.732 — Ryan Braun batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.292, 0.731 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Andrew Cashner.
0.293, 0.728 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Andrew Cashner.

Coors Field pulls Carlos Gonzalez onto the list. Daniel Murphy is the easy consensus pick, but a number of Marlins work quite well. As always, the best picks will not get a hit about 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2ba4sY9