Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.317 — Yunel Escobar batting against James Paxton
0.315 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman
0.292 — James Loney batting against Anibal Sanchez
0.290 — Andrelton Simmons batting against James Paxton
0.290 — Mike Trout batting against James Paxton
0.289 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against James Shields
0.288 — Corey Seager batting against David Price
0.287 — Manny Machado batting against James Shields
0.287 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.286 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Marcus Stroman

Angels hitters against Paxton look like a good bet.

The NN produces this list:

0.315, 0.745 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.281, 0.745 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.282, 0.736 — Daniel Murphy batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.317, 0.736 — Yunel Escobar batting against James Paxton.
0.269, 0.717 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.288, 0.717 — Corey Seager batting against David Price.
0.286, 0.712 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.257, 0.710 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.265, 0.710 — Mookie Betts batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.284, 0.708 — Ryan Braun batting against Archie Bradley.

Paulo Orlando moves to the top, and Altuve makes his daily appearance. Cain and Corey Seager move up as well.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.315, 0.749 — Paulo Orlando batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.281, 0.743 — Jose Altuve batting against Yu Darvish.
0.317, 0.738 — Yunel Escobar batting against James Paxton.
0.282, 0.738 — Daniel Murphy batting against Madison Bumgarner.
0.269, 0.722 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Brandon McCarthy.
0.288, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against David Price.
0.257, 0.718 — Dee Gordon batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.286, 0.718 — Lorenzo Cain batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.267, 0.716 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.265, 0.716 — Martin Prado batting against Jonathan Gray.
0.284, 0.715 — Ryan Braun batting against Archie Bradley.
0.265, 0.715 — Mookie Betts batting against Brandon McCarthy.

Orlando, Escobar, and Murphy seem to be the consensus picks. As always, 25% of the time your best pick won’t get a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2b0ySjm