Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.364 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Duffey
0.306 — Carlos Beltran batting against Tyler Anderson
0.304 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Cody Reed
0.301 — Yadier Molina batting against Cody Reed
0.300 — Manny Machado batting against Kendall Graveman
0.298 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Tyler Anderson
0.298 — Hyun Soo Kim batting against Kendall Graveman
0.295 — Rougned Odor batting against Tyler Anderson
0.292 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Hisashi Iwakuma
0.291 — Marwin Gonzalez batting against Tyler Duffey

That’s a huge gap in probability of a hit between Altuve at the top and Beltran in second place. Beltran is playing at Coors tonight and Altuve is at Target Field so we’ll see if the park NN brings them closer together.

The NN without park creates this list:

0.364, 0.785 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.292, 0.719 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.300, 0.714 — Manny Machado batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.263, 0.714 — Dee Gordon batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.284, 0.713 — Corey Seager batting against Zach Eflin.
0.274, 0.713 — Martin Prado batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.306, 0.711 — Carlos Beltran batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.289, 0.710 — Ian Kinsler batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.273, 0.709 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.298, 0.705 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.304, 0.705 — Stephen Piscotty batting against Cody Reed.

It’s still a huge lead for Altuve, this time against Miguel Cabrera.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.364, 0.788 — Jose Altuve batting against Tyler Duffey.
0.306, 0.723 — Carlos Beltran batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.292, 0.721 — Miguel Cabrera batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.
0.300, 0.720 — Manny Machado batting against Kendall Graveman.
0.298, 0.717 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.284, 0.716 — Corey Seager batting against Zach Eflin.
0.274, 0.715 — Martin Prado batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.263, 0.714 — Dee Gordon batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.290, 0.712 — Adrian Beltre batting against Tyler Anderson.
0.273, 0.712 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Johnny Cueto.
0.289, 0.714 — Ian Kinsler batting against Hisashi Iwakuma.

So Coors bring Beltran back to second place, but the gap remains. It looks like some combination or Altuve with Beltran or Cabrera is the best bet for tonight, although the probabilities outside Altuve are so low that I might not double down today. Even your best picks will fail to get a hit 25% of the time.

Good luck!

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