The division previews continue with the NL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2016, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2016. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Washington Nationals
- Position Player WAR: 24.5
- Pitcher Total: 18.2
- Core Total: 42.7
While we rightly talk about the Cubs establishing a dynasty, the Nationals are not that far behind. They have slowly but surely build an extremely good team. They drafted well, they signed well, and they traded well. Their position players produced a core WAR of 24.5 in 2016, the highest of the five division teams. The core of that core are four young players, Adan Eaton, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper. Surround those four with solid veterans, and the Nationals will have a very good offense every year.
There is upside to this group as well. Harper had an off year and seems determined to return to his MVP form. Trea Turner is just getting started. Ryan Zimmerman probably produces a positive WAR if he remains healthy. The biggest downside among the position players is Eaton, whose WAR jumped from three to six due to his first good defensive season. If he drops back to three and Harper returns to a seven, it all evens out.
The Nationals also send out a pitching staff with the best core WAR in the division. These pitcher might have flaws, but the middle of the rotation produced three WAR each, and the fifth starter posted a two. Offenses don’t get an easy day against the Nationals.
Washington has not been able to put together two good years in a row since they emerged from the second division. This should be the year that changes.
New York Mets
- Position Player WAR: 14.9
- Pitcher Total: 15.9
- Core Total: 30.8
The Mets are simply great pitching with poor offense. Most depth charts I’ve seen put David Wright at third base, but it strikes me as the Mets supporting their captain. His history of injury and age in his middle thirties makes me skeptical he will contribute much to the team, so I list Jose Reyes as the third baseman.
There is no youth among the position players, which means very little chance of upside. Who on this team is going to break out and produce a five or six WAR season? Even if someone like Yoenis Cespedes gets back to that level, it might be wiped out by declines among the other veterans.
That said, they should not need to score many runs to win, if the rotation stays healthy. Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler could rival the Nationals’ three and four starters, but their health issues lowers the probability of that happening. New York is going to need a lot of luck in close games to make the playoffs.
Miami Marlins
- Position Player WAR: 17.8
- Pitcher Total: 7.4
- Core Total: 25.2
This could be a good year for the Marlins, and it could have been a great year for the Marlins. Giancarlo Stanton enters his age 27 season, the peak age for an athlete. It’s the perfect time for him to stay healthy and produce a monster MVP season. If he jumps from 1.7 WAR to 8.0, one could see the Marlins competing for a wild card. Unlike the Mets, the Marlins core position players are fairly young, so a big improvement from Stanton and small improvements from others could put their core WAR in the mid 30s.
Add that to the potential output of Jose Fernandez, and the team is approaching 40 WAR and fighting the Nationals for first place in the division. Fernandez posted a six WAR in 2016, and Dan Straily is probably not in the rotation.
Still I am bullish on the Marlins. Although their core comes in five wins behind the Mets, I would expect those to flip by the end of the season.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Position Player WAR: 16.8
- Pitcher Total: 11.6
- Core Total: 28.4
The Phillies are another team on their way up. César Hernández and Odúbel Herrera do a great job of getting on base, and Tommy Joseph is showing good power. The team brought in a couple of solid veterans to stabilize the offense, so I would expect the Phillies to exceed the core WAR for their position players.
There is a lot of youth in the rotation as well. In addition, they seem to have adopted the Twins strategy of using pitchers who don’t issue walks.
My guess is the team is a year away from being in contention, but Phillies fans should appreciate that this will be a better year in Philadelphia, and even better years lie ahead.
Atlanta Braves
- Position Player WAR: 15.2
- Pitcher Total: 11.0
- Core Total: 26.2
As the Braves move into a new stadium, they feature one star and three very good players. Freddie Freeman is the reason to watch the Braves play, while Ender Inciarte, Julio Teheran, and the ageless Bartolo Colon provide support. There’s not enough in the rest of the team, however, to give this team much upside.
This is a place holder team. The Braves are developing talent. No doubt some of it will reach the majors over the next two years, but this is likely to be another last place finish for Atlanta.
Probability of winning the division
- Washington Nationals 50%
- Miami Marlins 18%
- New York Mets 17%
- Philadelphia Phillies 10%
- Atlanta Braves 5%
The Marlins, Mets, and Phillies are fairly evenly matched in my opinion. I rank the Marlins slightly ahead of the Mets due to the upside potential of Miami against the downside potential of New York. The Phillies could be the surprise team of the division.
That said, the Nationals have a very good chance of running away with this division. Looking a bit ahead, the 2018 season could feature four very strong teams in this division given the trajectory of the Marlins, Phillies, and Braves, and the solid base laid down by Washington.
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