Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.281 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Wainwright.
0.278 — Nick Markakis batting against Tanner Roark.
0.278 — Avisail Garcia batting against Jakob Junis.
0.277 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tanner Roark.
0.276 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jason Vargas.
0.275 — Freddy Galvis batting against Drew Pomeranz.
0.275 — David Peralta batting against Jordan Lyles.
0.271 — Trey Mancini batting against Ervin Santana.
0.271 — Thomas Pham batting against Jakob Junis.
0.271 — Jeff McNeil batting against Vincent Velasquez.

Yelich is the best hitter in the game right now, and destroyed the Cardinals up until the last two games. This is not the usual group of suspects, however, which makes me suspect there are some good pitchers starting today.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.275, 0.705 — David Peralta batting against Jordan Lyles.
• 0.281, 0.703 — Christian Yelich batting against Adam Wainwright.
• 0.264, 0.701 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyson Ross.
• 0.263, 0.698 — Jose Altuve batting against Kohl Stewart.
• 0.262, 0.697 — Anthony Rendon batting against German Marquez.
• 0.258, 0.696 — Jose Martinez batting against Jhoulys Chacin.
• 0.271, 0.694 — Jeff McNeil batting against Vincent Velasquez.
• 0.277, 0.693 — Freddie Freeman batting against Tanner Roark.
• 0.261, 0.690 — Michael Brantley batting against Kohl Stewart.
• 0.263, 0.690 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Anibal Sanchez.

This is a somewhat different list, as the two systems are not in much agreement. Yelich is the consensus first pick, with David Peralta the consensus second choice. Peralta is finding the gaps this year with eleven doubles in 101 at bats. He hit 25 doubles in a full season in 2018.

Games start at 1 PM EDT today, so pick early!

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2UYaLsd

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich drew two walks against the Cardinals Tuesday night to remain atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. The Cardinals seemed to figure him out, however, as he slowed down just a bit in this series. Cody Bellinger doubled to stay in second place, ahead of a still idle Anthony Rendon. The big change came in fourth place, where Michael Conforto replace Mike Trout, with Alex Bregman also passing the Angels superstar. The three are separated by 0.28 points. Trout went zero for two with two walks in a loss to the Yankees. Conforto singled twice and walks as the Mets beat the Phillies, and Bregman singled and walked as the Astros came back to beat the Twins.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2W2NGRl

Wednesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2vhPKZV

Perhaps Artificial Intelligence Really Is

I’m almost embarrassed to write this post. Having co-founded an early AI based software company, I have seen both the great power and many of the challenges in effectively leveraging these technologies. However, I often despair when I read much of the literature and sale pitches about exploiting AI and ML technologies.

Too often, the way these technologies are exploited focus on the artificial and not the intelligence in “artificial intelligence.”

Most of it is naive. Too many don’t understand how to effectively leverage AI. They don’t recognize what it takes to train and implement these systems. Or they leverage the output very poorly.

My friend, Tamara Schenk, recently complained about a prospecting outreach, from one of these companies, supposedly exploiting their technology. They suggested an introductory meeting late afternoon, Pacific time. A few seconds of research would tell you Tamara lives outside Frankfurt and late afternoon is likely to be after midnight her time.

AI doesn’t necessarily prevent us from doing terribly stupid things. Poorly implemented, it can even accelerate and amplify our stupidity.

Yet, too many in sales and marketing think it is the answer to their prayers. All they have to do is buy the tools, and they will immediately successful.

And too many vendors exploit that ignorance.

AI doesn’t displace the need for critical thinking and astute implementation and precision execution. In fact, these technologies are best leveraged. In wickedly smart, focused organizations.

AI and ML can help us see patterns and recognize opportunities that may have been difficult to understand without the technology. These technologies can give us deeper knowledge and insights about our customers, helping us more effectively reach the right customers on the right issues at the right time.

But our success is dependent on how effectively we understand and leverage it.

Stated otherwise, a fool with a tool is still a fool

Related Posts:

• AI And Sales, What We Misunderstand
• If A “Fool With A Tool Is Still A Fool,”…
• Send In The “Bots”
• Is Technology Hurting Or Helping Our Ability To Sell…
• Getting The Cart Before The Horse, Sales Automation

from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2IT5FG8

3 Questions to Ask Before Buying a Whirlpool Tub

Content originally published and Shared from http://perfectbath.com

Are you buying your first whirlpool bathtub? Let us help you narrow down the choices. Start by asking yourself the following questions:

Will it fit in the bathroom?
Make sure to measure your bathroom before you even look at a whirlpool, including any space you might gain taking down dividing walls or showers. “Most whirlpools come in three standard sizes,” says Morey. “Five feet, five and a half and six. But you can’t just consider the tub size — they’re all designed to be dropped into a deck, and that will take up more space, with the bare minimum adding at least a half-inch to your measurements on all sides.

“If you think you’d like to hold a lot of stuff like candles and oils near the water, you’ll also need extra space on the deck,” says Morey. “If you’re over six feet tall, you may want to forfeit deck space for more tub room.” Source: HGTV

Is your current heating system enough?
If you choose to heat your whirlpool with your existing in-home heating system, make sure it can handle the amount of water needed to fill the whirlpool. With an external system, the water in the tub will get cool quickly due to the circulating jets, so you will need to frequently refill the tub with hot water. A 50 gallon quick recovery system should be sufficient.

The other option is a self-heating system. A self-heating whirlpool comes with its own internal heating system that circulates the tub water and reheats when necessary. This is a good energy-saving option and the best way to keep your water temperature consistent. Source: DoItYourself

Which type of jet should you pick?
Choose between water jets or air jets. Water-jet whirlpool tubs force water through jets, giving more pressure and a forceful massage. In air-jet whirlpool tubs, air is forced through tiny holes for a lighter massage. A combination whirlpool tub uses both, but will be more expensive and may use more energy.

• One drawback of water-jet and combination tubs is that you can’t use bath salts or oils, as these will damage the pumping mechanism.
• Another water-jet and combination tub drawback is that some water stays in the jets, and mold can develop if they’re not regularly cleaned out. Source: WikiHow

We can help you figure out which brand or type of whirlpool tub will work best for your needs. Find out more when you call us today!

 

Contact:
Perfect Bath
Phone: Toll Free 1-866-843-1641
Calgary, Alberta
Email: info@perfectbath.com

The post 3 Questions to Ask Before Buying a Whirlpool Tub appeared first on Perfect Bath Canada.

from Perfect Bath Canada http://bit.ly/2W6LBE4

Alfaro Paying Off

Jorge Alfaro homered for the Marlins Tuesday night in a 3-1 win over the Indians. Alfaro now owns a .281/.328/.491 slash line, a bit better than J.T. Realmuto is hitting for the Phillies. Alfaro is two years younger than Realmuto and if he continues to hit well, this might go down as one of the better trades of the Marlins rebuild.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2VlMs6D

Games of the Day

The Braves send Kevin Gausman against the Reds and Sonny Gray. With 22 K in 19 2/3 innings Gausman limited opponents to just nine hits. Gray pitched well but hasn’t won, also striking out 22 in 19 1/3 innings.

Luke Weaver and Trevor Williams battle as the Diamondbacks take on the first place Pirates. Weaver is pitching well overall, but got hurt by allowing a .313 BA with runners in scoring position this season. Williams’s ERA is lower than Weaver’s due to his .188 BA allowed in the same situation.

The Brewers and Cardinals continue their wild season series as Zach Davies faces Daniel Poncedeleon. Davies gives up hits and walks, with a .326 OBP allowed. He limits power, however, with a .366 slugging percentage allowed. Poncedeleon makes his 2019 debut after posting a 2.73 ERA in 33 innings his rookie year.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Uyxshl

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.314 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.307 — Trey Mancini batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.299 — Anthony Rendon batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.295 — Wilson Ramos batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.292 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.292 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.290 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.289 — Tim Anderson batting against Andrew Cashner.
• 0.288 — Adam C Eaton batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.287 — Renato Nunez batting against Ivan Nova.

I had not seen Renato Nunez in the top ten before. He is basically the replacement at third base for Manny Machado. He is in his seasonal age 25 season, so right at the start of his prime. He hit well since joining the Orioles last year after poor performances in limited time in Oakland and Texas.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.314, 0.722 — Jeff McNeil batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.292, 0.718 — Howie Kendrick batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.299, 0.718 — Anthony Rendon batting against Chad Bettis.
• 0.292, 0.717 — Jose Altuve batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.284, 0.714 — Jose Martinez batting against Zach Davies.
• 0.290, 0.710 — Michael Brantley batting against Michael Pineda.
• 0.274, 0.709 — J.D. Martinez batting against Spencer Turnbull.
• 0.307, 0.706 — Trey Mancini batting against Ivan Nova.
• 0.295, 0.704 — Wilson Ramos batting against Zach Eflin.
• 0.266, 0.704 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.

Note that the Red Sox and Tigers play a split admissions double header to day, so J.D. Martinez makes this list twice. McNeil is the unanimous choice with Rendon the consensus second choice. If Rendon still can’t play, Howie Kendrick would be the consensus third choice.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2UteSqU

Best Batter Today

The top five remain unchanged in the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Christian Yelich lost a few points as he goes 0 for four against the Cardinals, but still maintains a big lead over Cody Bellinger and Anthony Rendon, both idle Monday night. Mike Trout singled and walked twice in an Angels loss to the Yankees to stay in fourth place, while Alex Bregman singled and walked in an Astros loss to the Twins to hold fifth place.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2ISybrt

Tuesday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2PmSMpd

Sales Results: Principles Versus Techniques/Tactics

How do we create sustained results as sales professionals? After all, our jobs are:

• Create differentiated value with our customers.
• Execute our company business strategies with our customers.
• Achieve/exceed our goals and objectives.

There are thousands of “experts” providing advice to sales people on how to best do our jobs. Thousands of posts and books, give the latest insights, techniques, principles to “help” sales people.

The web is loaded with titles like:

• “20 [choose the number you want] tips/techniques to get the customer to……”
• “Just do this one thing for guaranteed sales success…..”
• “Here’s the quota busting playbook for success in…..”
• “Get prospects to return [insert your calls, emails, outreach] for success….”
• “Just say these words ……. for guaranteed success.”
• “Using this tool/technique will increase your results by [insert whatever preposterous multiplier you want]….”
• ….and the claims go on and on.

It seems with just the right techniques or tactics, plus some wishful thinking we can always find a certain path to achieving our goals. And if the one’s we have chosen don’t work, there are thousands more to try out.

There’s no end to advice on tactics and techniques, and I suppose they have all worked—perhaps at least one time in one situations. But those presenting them seem to have discovered the secret to sustained sales success.

The problem with techniques and tactics is they are situational and only address a single issue–perhaps the issue we are confronted with right now. Stated differently, they only help us in a very specific situation or under certain circumstances. But as the situations or circumstances change, the tactics and techniques fail us.

Additionally, techniques and tactics don’t help us with the whole customer engagement process. We end up having to search for techniques and tasks for prospecting, different ones for qualification, discovery, objection handling, managing deals, making sales calls, presenting solutions, creating value, closing, and on and on…….

Those who rely on techniques and tactics, must continually search for just the right one, for this situation, thie customer, these types of products, and this part of the buying cycle.

Alternatively, we keep applying the same tactics and techniques with decreasing success to every situation, with declining results until we are forced to look for new tactics and techniques.

Overlaying all of this are constant changes in our customers, markets, products, and the things critical to success in engaging customers.

How do we break out of this conundrum? How do we start to understand how to be more successful, time after time, customer after customer, situation after situation, month after month?

It’s to focus on the basic principles underlying customer buying processes and how we successfully engage them in moving through their buying process. The problem is principles are boring—there’s nothing new, exciting, or sexy about principles. There is no “latest, greatest, technology enabled” secret to basic principles.

They are the same things that have served as the foundation to sales success for decades.

Perhaps the problem with principles is they don’t give us the answers, rather they provide us a framework from which we can develop the answers that are most relevant to the specific situation we face.

For example, we know the principles that we have to be customer focused, put the customer at the center of our engagement strategies, and create value in every interchange. Those principles have been around for at least decades, if not centuries.

But we are confronted with, “What does that mean for this situation or what I need to do now?”

In applying principles we have to think about the situation, we have to assess what might be best, based on our past experience in applying the principles in similar situations. We have to adapt those approaches, based on what we’ve learned and what we believe works best now.

In complex B2B buying and selling, there is no one right way, there is no single answer. There are, inevitably, choices we make that may or may not work for a situation, and changes/adaptations we must leverage as we engage customers.

Buying and selling in complex B2B situations requires critical thinking, problem solving, and the ability to figure things out–which is why, inevitably, tactic and techniques consistently fail.

Stop the wishful thinking! Stop looking for someone else to give you the answers! Make sure you understand the underlying principles to buying/selling success, take the time to figure out (with your customer) what’s the best path forward to achieving your shared goals.

Related Posts:

• The Not So New Principles Of Sales
• How Important Are “Techniques” To Sales?
• An Alternative To High Pressure Selling!
• Principle Based Selling!
• How “Sales-speak” Limits Us

from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2IBiRAk

deGrom Okay

Jacob deGrom and the Mets got good news from the doctors:

An MRI on New York Mets ace Jacob deGrom’s right elbow came back clean, general manager Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters on Monday.
“MRI was good, clean, no problems whatsoever,” Van Wagenen said.

“Jacob threw a bullpen today and is on track to make his start when he’s able to come off (the IL).”

ESPN.com

Given the Mets recent history with injuries, it was better to be safe than sorry.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2GE5ixX

Games of the Day

“May I Send You A Free Proposal”

I got an intriguing email today. The subject line grabbed my attention–though I suspect not for the reasons the sales person intended: “May I send you a free proposal?”

It got my mind spinning, Who pays for proposals? Is the sender so arrogant, or clueless to think that an offer for a free proposal would catch my interest because it stands our from all the other offers for proposals that I get?

It’s also interesting, this person has the arrogance to think they can give me a proposal, without ever talking to me and knowing what I want to do, what my problems are, what my priorities are, or what I want to achieve.

Without even asking for the proposal, I already know the content of the proposal, “Please buy my product/service, it will cost you $X/month…..”

While this may be an extreme case, too many prospecting emails and calls are basically the same: “This is what I sell, are you interested in buying?”

And this isn’t selling……..

Related Posts:

• It’s Just A Numbers Game
• What If You Sold What Customers Wanted To Buy?
• The Numbers Are, Well, Just Numbers….
• “Can I Give You A Quote?”
• A Quote Is Not The Objective!

from Partners in EXCELLENCE Blog — Making A Difference http://bit.ly/2GAxulb

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.305 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.297 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.295 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.293 — Adam C Eaton batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.287 — Clint Frazier batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.282 — Christian Yelich batting against Jack Flaherty.
• 0.277 — Tim Anderson batting against David Hess.
• 0.274 — Gleyber Torres batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.272 — Andrelton Simmons batting against J.A. Happ.
• 0.270 — Kurt Suzuki batting against Tyler Anderson.

Rendon is day to day after a hit by pitch on Saturday. Kendrick would be the likely replacement at third base. Yelich destroyed the Cardinals so far this season, 12 for 24 with eight home runs and eight walks.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.305, 0.720 — Anthony Rendon batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.297, 0.720 — Howie Kendrick batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.266, 0.704 — J.D. Martinez batting against Matt Boyd.
• 0.293, 0.703 — Adam C Eaton batting against Tyler Anderson.
• 0.295, 0.702 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Matt Harvey.
• 0.266, 0.699 — David Peralta batting against Joe Musgrove.
• 0.282, 0.699 — Christian Yelich batting against Jack Flaherty.
• 0.265, 0.696 — Jose Martinez batting against Adrian Houser.
• 0.277, 0.688 — Tim Anderson batting against David Hess.
• 0.259, 0.686 — Jeff McNeil batting against Jake Arrieta.

The two systems agree on the top two. Rendon is two for five against Anderson with a walk and two strikeouts. Kendrick is three for eleven with one walk and three strikeouts. J.D. Martinez owns an 11 game hit streak, the longest active streak in baseball.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Ix1ArX

Weekly Look at Offense

Offense in 2019 remains ahead of 2018 after three full weeks. In 2018 (all stats are through three full weeks in each season), game averaged 8.83 runs per game. In 2019, that’s up to 9.23 runs per game. The surge is entirely due to home runs, averaging 2.66 per game this season compared to 2.13 per game last year. Players are trading lower value hits for home runs, as other hits dropped from 14.40 last season to 13.84 this year. So HR are +0.53 per game, other hits are -0.56 per game. Walks are down slightly, so overall players on base are down slightly, but the great power overwhelms that.

What is fascinating so far is that the power surge comes with a level strikeout rate. One needs to go out the hundreds place to see that Ks went up from 17.7 per game to 17.8 per game.

Could this be the point where the strikeout paradox breaks? Strikeouts are good for pitchers, since they prevent hits by taking away the luck of putting balls in play. Strikeout are good for batters, as players who strike out at high rates tend to be good power hitters. There is a mixture here; at one end there is Mike Trout and Joey Votto, great all-around hitters despite the strikeouts. At the other end are Joey Gallo and Jorge Soler, high K hitters who make a lot of outs.

Over time, the strikeout rate rises as power for batters competes with power for pitchers. It’s possible, however, that there is a limit to this rise. Maybe there are just enough situations in games where the need to put the bat on the ball exceeds the need to hit for power. Maybe the Ted Williams swing (in the plane of the flight of the pitch) is really better than the Alex Rodriguez swing (down at the ball). If the launch angle evolution breaks the strikeout to power dynamic, we’ll have a better game.

Stay tuned.

You can follow the weekly runs per game compared to recent seasons on this spreadsheet.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2W0yPH4

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich stays atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings, but there is other movement in the top five. Cody Bellinger moves into the second place, gaining on Yelich with both his bat and glove. Yelich walked twice against the Dodgers, but Bellinger robbed the Brewers slugger of a home run. Bellinger went three for four with a walk and a home run and now trails Yelich by about 23 points. Anthony Rendon missed a game after a hit by pitch on Saturday and falls to third place. Mike Trout remains in fourth place after doubling twice and walking twice. He’s slugging .719 on the season. Alex Bregman replaces Michael Conforto as number five on the list. Bregman went two for three with two walks in a slugfest against the Rangers, but the Rangers prevailed 11-10.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2IvylFO

Monday Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2IImrYF

Surprise Stat

This caught me by surprise:

Joey Gallo‘s first sacrifice fly in more than 1,300 plate appearances for his career helped Shelby Miller get his first big league win in two years.
The problem for the Texas Rangers was needing their closer after leading by nine runs, then having to replace Jose Leclerc to finish off the Houston Astros.

Gallo’s first sac fly in plate appearance No. 1,337 helped him match his career best of five RBIs and Shawn Kelley came on for the faltering Leclerc to get the final out in an 11-10 victory over the Astros on Sunday.

StarTribune.com

I would not have guessed Joey Gallo would lack for sacrifice flies. For his career, 49.9% of his balls in play were rated fly balls. Thirty percent of those were home runs, and about 10% were infield flies. That still leaves a large number of fly balls capable of moving a runner from third to home.

One problem might be the Rangers offense. Gallo came up just 73 times with a man on third and less that two outs. The second problem is that in that situation he collected 15 walks, while he struck out 25 times. So in 55% of potential SF PAs, he didn’t even get the bat on the ball. Still, one might think that once those other PAs a ball would go deep and land in an outfielder’s glove.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2VZvQ1y

Shoemaker Gets a Boot

Blue Jays pitcher Matt Shoemaker is done for the season:

Shoemaker was immediately placed on the injured list with a ‘knee sprain’ after the game, and the MRI on Sunday revealed a torn ACL, which would bring an end to his season already.

It’s terrible news for Shoemaker, who had been limited to 21 starts combined over the previous three seasons due to injuries. He suffered a fractured skull and concussion in 2016 — which required emergency surgery to stop bleeding — while a lingering forearm issue required surgeries in 2017 and 2018.

Yahoo.com

He was off to a good beginning, too, ending the season with a 1.57 in 28 2/3 innings over five starts.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2VXlBek

Games of the Day

The Red Sox go for a sweep of the Rays as David Price battles Tyler Glasnow. Price stands as the Red Sox only effective starter this season. He’s achieved that through power and control, with 20 strikeouts and just three walks in 19 innings. Glasnow, along with Austin Meadows, came over from the Pirates in the Chris Archer trade. So far, that deal worked out extremely well for Tampa Bay as Glasnow is 4-0 with a 1.13 ERA in four starts, and Meadows owns a .351/.422/.676 slash line.

Aaron Sanchez leads the Blue Jays against the Athletics and Brett Anderson. Sanchez trades walks for hits and power, as his .316 slugging percentage allowed is 21 points lower than his OBP allowed. Opponents get on base, but don’t move very far afterward. Anderson allowed just one home run in 24 innings, an excellent number give this year’s home run surge.

Finally, the Sunday night game features an excellent pitchers as the Braves take on the Indians. Max Fried takes on Shane Bieber. Fried’s strikeout rate is low, but he limits hits like a fire-baller. Fried is getting 57% of the balls in play against him on the ground, and the Braves defense is vacuuming them into outs. Bieber, like other good pitchers on the mound today, allowed just one home run in 21 innings of work.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Xx2XKB

Milestone Saturday

Fernando Rodney tied Cy Young for pitching appearances at 906 in yesterday’s Athletics game. That ranks 24th all time, with nothing but relievers at the top of the list.

This article stats that Albert Pujols tied Babe Ruth with 1992 RBI, but that depends on your source. That may be the Elias number, but Baseball Reference has a much higher number for Ruth and others.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Dpabsp

Clustering

David Laurila’s weekly notes column contains a discussion with Red’s catcher Tucker Barnhart about how the data he now receives helps him call pitches. This part stood out for me:

“You can put in a database, ‘Luis Castillo versus hitter A’ and come up with his mix, and what’s been successful against that specific guy,” Barnhart told me. “You can find which pitchers in the league are as close as possible to him, and look at their history against certain guys. There are a lot of things out there that I wasn’t privy to until fairly recently.”

FanGraphs.com

About 15 years ago I helped a team with a something like this. Without revealing anything important, they had ratings for pitchers, and wanted to use those to expand the sample size of the batter/pitcher match-up. So if player X was 3 for 10 against that day’s starter, but 4 for 30 against all pitchers like that starter, maybe you sat him that day. It’s an example of how long it takes some organizations to delve into the data.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2KPqhSb

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.298 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.291 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.286 — Jose Altuve batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.286 — David Fletcher batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.283 — Jose Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
• 0.281 — Cody Bellinger batting against Brandon Woodruff.
• 0.280 — Michael Brantley batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.279 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.279 — Brian Goodwin batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.279 — Jeff McNeil batting against Dakota Hudson.

Simmons is hitting .274, but with just one walk in 85 PA. So while that gives him a very low OBP, it does give him a good hit average, especially relative to the league. Leake is similar, walking just four batters of the 102 he’s faced. Opponents are hitting .299 against him.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.286, 0.716 — Jose Altuve batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.283, 0.709 — Jose Martinez batting against Noah Syndergaard.
• 0.298, 0.705 — Andrelton Simmons batting against Mike Leake.
• 0.280, 0.704 — Michael Brantley batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.278, 0.701 — Yulieski Gurriel batting against Shelby Miller.
• 0.276, 0.700 — Charlie Blackmon batting against Jerad Eickhoff.
• 0.291, 0.699 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.260, 0.698 — J.D. Martinez batting against Tyler Glasnow.
• 0.279, 0.698 — Jeff McNeil batting against Dakota Hudson.
• 0.267, 0.697 — David Peralta batting against Tyler Chatwood.

Altuve comes out on top in this list due to his high three-year hit average. He is tied with Simmons for consensus first pick. It seems like a good day to double down.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2GxXygT

Best Batter Today

Christian Yelich continues to rake, hitting two more home runs Saturday and drawing a walk to extend his lead atop the Baseball Musings Batter Rankings. Nine of those home runs came in April, so he has an outside shot at the record for the month. Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez share that record at 14. Fourteen is also the record for home runs through the end of April, and Yelich may blow that one away.

The rest of the top five remains the same. Anthony Rendon hit streak ended when he left in the middle of the game after being hit by a pitch. Cody Bellinger drew a walk, Mike Trout drew a walk, and Michael Conforto took the collar with an 0 for 4. Four through eight in the ranking are now very bunched, with just three points separating the five players.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2IM6BfF

Easter Update

The Day by Day Database is up to date.

Happy Easter to all those celebrating today!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Vn2H3D

Another Yankee Down

Aaron Judge homered early in the game against the Royals, but left in the bottom of the sixth:

After hitting a single, Judge winced on a swing and was in discomfort as he ran to first base, where he was met by the trainer and removed from the game for pinch-runner Tyler Wade.

Judge has had two injured list stints in his career. His 2016 season ended with a right oblique injury, and he missed more than a month in 2018 with a chip fracture in his right wrist.

MLB.com

The younger Yankees have been stepping up lately and New York is leading the game 9-2 in the ninth. The Yankees are really testing the depth of their system this year.

There is video at the link.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2Pkj5fI

deGrom Throwing

Jacob deGrom might not need that MRI after all:

The Mets have a long history of not handling injuries the right way. But allowing your star pitcher to throw in 53-degree weather ahead of an MRI after his elbow hurt just a day ago? That’s bonkers — but perhaps it’s also good news. If deGrom’s arm was still killing him, surely he wouldn’t self-sabotage just because he was itching for a catch, right?

TheBigLead.com

Given the Mets history, they may have just erred too much on the side of caution yesterday.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2IMkb2G

Game of the Day

Two pitchers trying to right the ship square off in Chicago as Zack Greinke faces Yu Darvish. Greinke comes into the game with a 5.79 ERA. He pitched well in certain regards, striking out 28 and walking four in 23 1/3 innings. He may be around the plate too much, however, as he allowed eight home runs, one third of his 24 hits. He’s coming off his best start of the season.

Darvish comes into the game with a 6.11 ERA. He struck out 18 in 17 2/3 innings, a fine rate, but walked 15 batters. What’s really interesting is that Darvish allowed 13 runs, but only eight of those came from RBI. He threw one wild pitch, and there was one GDP, but only with a man on first. Only one of the runs in unearned, so it almost strikes me that there were some non-error miscues by the Cubs defense, or that his bullpen pretty much let him down. Relievers in Darvish’s games have allowed 22 hits in 16 1/3 innings.

Enjoy!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2vfW2JA

Home Run Barrage Continues

Almost two thirds of the way through the month, April 2019 remains on pace to be a record setter for home runs in the expansion era. The record is 931 in the year 2000, the height of the PED era. The total is a little unfair, as April over the years varied in length. April 2000 also set the record for home runs per PA, 3.26. Through Friday, MLB is averaging 3.45 HR per PA, with 628 home runs hit in the month (note that this is strictly April, the March HR are not counted). There is an outside shot at 1000 HR this month. There have only been eight months with at least 1000 home runs, and six of those occurred in the 2016-2017 time span.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2XoqiOo

The Rockies Mistake

Bryce Harper went five for seven with two doubles in Colorado last night, although that was not enough for the Phillies to beat the Rockies as the final was 4-3 Colorado in 12 innings. Harper now owns a .400/.495/.635 slash line at Coors Field.

Maybe instead of signing Daniel Murphy, the Rockies should have broken the bank and signed Harper to go along with Nolan Arenado. It’s possible that Harper didn’t want to play there, as he mentioned an affinity for the east coast helping to move him toward the Phillies. With Harper’s ability to hit the ball hard, the big outfield, and straighter pitches coming at him due to the lack of air resistance, he might have put up really amazing numbers.

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2vbHk6t

Beat the Streak Picks

For the past two years Baseball Musings tried to help with playing Beat the Streak. The Day by Day Database keeps track of hit streak of at least five games. In addition, two programs produce top ten lists of players with a high probability of a hit. If you find this useful, please support Baseball Musings with a donation.

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I updated the models, and the results of those tests are here.

For 2019, I am just going to publish the Log5 hit averages and the NN probabilities with parks factored in. I am keeping track of the results here. I added a graph that gives a visual representation of the probability and success each day.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

• 0.309 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.302 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.294 — Trey Mancini batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.292 — Adam C Eaton batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.292 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.287 — Jeff McNeil batting against Miles Mikolas.
• 0.284 — Jorge Polanco batting against Daniel Straily.
• 0.284 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
• 0.283 — Jose Altuve batting against Adrian Sampson.
• 0.282 — Austin Meadows batting against Rick Porcello.
• 0.282 — Jorge Polanco batting against Alex Cobb.

Rendon owns a 17-game hit streak. So does one bet on him because he is hot, or does one bet against him because long streaks tend to end. I believe the answer should be that you ignore the streak. While I would not argue that today’s performance is independent of recent performance, I doubt the dependence is very high. If Rendon has a high probability of getting a hit, then that probability should hold no matter how long the streak lasted.

Urena does not have a history of giving up lots of hits, but batters are hitting .337 against him so far this season. As we’ve seen in the last few days, however, many pitchers who got off to poor starts are finding their grooves.

Here are the neural network picks:

• 0.302, 0.717 — Howie Kendrick batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.309, 0.716 — Anthony Rendon batting against Jose Urena.
• 0.284, 0.715 — Jean Segura batting against Antonio Senzatela.
• 0.283, 0.714 — Jose Altuve batting against Adrian Sampson.
• 0.287, 0.704 — Jeff McNeil batting against Miles Mikolas.
• 0.278, 0.703 — Jose Martinez batting against Chris Flexen.
• 0.282, 0.699 — Jorge Polanco batting against Alex Cobb.
• 0.273, 0.698 — Christian Yelich batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu.
• 0.292, 0.698 — Tim Anderson batting against Daniel Norris.
• 0.294, 0.696 — Trey Mancini batting against Martin Perez.
• 0.266, 0.696 — David Peralta batting against Yu Darvish.

Kendrick owns a better long-term hit average, while Rendon dominates this season. The NN puts the most weight on the long-term average, so Kendrick beats Rendon by a hair. With Kendrick, however, one needs to pay attention that he’s actually starting the game.

Rendon is four for nine against Urena with a walk and two strikeouts. Kendrick is three for nine with a double, a home run, and two strikeouts.

Watch out for the double headers as well, make sure someone who you might pick is starting the game of interest for you.

I do not guarantee results. Your best pick is going to have about a 25% chance of not getting a hit. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://bit.ly/2PmsVgS