Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.318 — Daniel Murphy batting against Josh Tomlin
0.318 — Jose Altuve batting against Ervin Santana
0.304 — Jean Segura batting against Bartolo Colon
0.301 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nathan Eovaldi
0.301 — Starling Marte batting against Edwin Jackson
0.300 — Wilson Ramos batting against Josh Tomlin
0.298 — Mookie Betts batting against Nathan Eovaldi
0.298 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Quintana
0.297 — Martin Prado batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.295 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Martin Perez
0.295 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeff Samardzija

The usual suspects are at the top of the list, there isn’t one terrible pitcher that causes a team to dominate.

The NN produces this result:

0.318, 0.766 — Jose Altuve batting against Ervin Santana.
0.318, 0.751 — Daniel Murphy batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.298, 0.739 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Quintana.
0.301, 0.732 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.287, 0.728 — Dee Gordon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.297, 0.727 — Martin Prado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.298, 0.725 — Mookie Betts batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.301, 0.723 — Starling Marte batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.289, 0.721 — Corey Seager batting against Jeremy Hellickson.
0.295, 0.721 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeff Samardzija.

Altuve and Murphy flip at the top, but the main difference is that Wilson Ramos falls off the list.

The NN with park factored in looks like this:

0.318, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Ervin Santana.
0.318, 0.753 — Daniel Murphy batting against Josh Tomlin.
0.298, 0.743 — Paulo Orlando batting against Jose Quintana.
0.301, 0.739 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.298, 0.733 — Mookie Betts batting against Nathan Eovaldi.
0.297, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.287, 0.729 — Dee Gordon batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.301, 0.729 — Starling Marte batting against Edwin Jackson.
0.295, 0.725 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Martin Perez.
0.295, 0.725 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jeff Samardzija.

The park pushes Corey Seager off the list. Altuve and Murphy are the consensus best picks. As always, your best choices will go hitless 25% of the time, as Starling Marte did yesterday. Good luck!

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