Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.352 — Jose Altuve batting against Tom Milone
0.323 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Berrios
0.317 — Carlos Beltran batting against Chad Bettis
0.308 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Chad Bettis
0.307 — Rougned Odor batting against Chad Bettis
0.306 — Adrian Beltre batting against Chad Bettis
0.304 — Paulo Orlando batting against Miguel A Gonzalez
0.302 — Elvis Andrus batting against Chad Bettis
0.300 — Nomar Mazara batting against Chad Bettis
0.299 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Pineda
0.299 — Ian Desmond batting against Chad Bettis
0.299 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda

The Astros and Twins play a double header today, so Jose Altuve comes up twice. Unfortunately, you can only pick him in one of the two games, so if you want the AL batting leader, make sure you pick the game in which he plays. Otherwise, Log5 likes the Rangers against Chad Bettis.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.352, 0.781 — Jose Altuve batting against Tom Milone.
0.323, 0.768 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Berrios.
0.304, 0.739 — Paulo Orlando batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.299, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.299, 0.727 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.294, 0.719 — Starling Marte batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.317, 0.719 — Carlos Beltran batting against Chad Bettis.
0.306, 0.714 — Adrian Beltre batting against Chad Bettis.
0.289, 0.712 — Ryan Braun batting against Fausto Carmona.
0.283, 0.711 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jhoulys Chacin.

Paulo Orlando rises to the non Altuve alternative in this list.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.352, 0.783 — Jose Altuve batting against Tom Milone.
0.323, 0.769 — Jose Altuve batting against Jose Berrios.
0.304, 0.743 — Paulo Orlando batting against Miguel A Gonzalez.
0.299, 0.734 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.299, 0.734 — Mookie Betts batting against Michael Pineda.
0.317, 0.728 — Carlos Beltran batting against Chad Bettis.
0.294, 0.725 — Starling Marte batting against Christian Friedrich.
0.306, 0.722 — Adrian Beltre batting against Chad Bettis.
0.308, 0.719 — Jonathan Lucroy batting against Chad Bettis.
0.289, 0.719 — Ryan Braun batting against Fausto Carmona.

Lucroy replaces Lindor, and the Coors visitors move up a bit. It looks like if you are going to choose Altuve, take the Tommy Milone game.

As always, your best picks will fail to extend your streak 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aNuC4k