Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.321 — Mookie Betts batting against Patrick Corbin
0.320 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin
0.317 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson
0.317 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Foltynewicz
0.317 — Sandy Leon batting against Patrick Corbin
0.307 — Martin Prado batting against Carlos Rodon
0.307 — Corey Seager batting against Ivan Nova
0.306 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano
0.305 — Manny Machado batting against Matt Cain

The Red Sox seem to be the team with good luck tonight as Patrick Corbin comes up as the pitcher to hit three times on this list. Sandy Leon is starting to show up on the list as he starts to accumulate plate appearances and the regression for the 2016 season starts to fade.

The NN produces this list:

0.306, 0.762 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.335, 0.761 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.317, 0.742 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.320, 0.739 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.321, 0.739 — Mookie Betts batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.307, 0.732 — Corey Seager batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307, 0.730 — Martin Prado batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.294, 0.730 — Dee Gordon batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.317, 0.729 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.301, 0.722 — Christian Yelich batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.303, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Carlos Rodon.

The NN dislikes Carlos Rodon almost as much as Log5 dislikes Patrick Corbin.

The NN with park factored in produces this list:

0.335, 0.765 — Daniel Murphy batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.306, 0.760 — Jose Altuve batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.317, 0.746 — Paulo Orlando batting against Kyle Gibson.
0.320, 0.746 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.321, 0.746 — Mookie Betts batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.317, 0.737 — Wilson Ramos batting against Mike Foltynewicz.
0.307, 0.735 — Corey Seager batting against Ivan Nova.
0.307, 0.732 — Martin Prado batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.294, 0.730 — Dee Gordon batting against Carlos Rodon.
0.317, 0.727 — Sandy Leon batting against Patrick Corbin.
0.303, 0.726 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Carlos Rodon.

Murphy and Altuve are the consensus picks as usual. Mookie Betts is day to day, so Bogaerts and Orlando would be the next people down the list. As always, your best picks are going to go hitless about 25% of the time. Good luck!

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