Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.360 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Adam Morgan
0.355 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Morgan
0.353 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Morgan
0.342 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta
0.333 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman
0.328 — David Dahl batting against Adam Morgan
0.325 — Ryan Braun batting against Cody Reed
0.324 — Gerardo Parra batting against Adam Morgan
0.324 — Nolan Arenado batting against Adam Morgan
0.314 — Joey Votto batting against Wily Peralta
0.314 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jered Weaver

Adam Morgan gets hit pretty hard this year, and while it doesn’t matter for beating the streak, gives up lots of long hits as well. It’s a good day to select a player from the Rockies.

The NN produces this list:

0.333, 0.775 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.355, 0.755 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Morgan.
0.360, 0.754 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Adam Morgan.
0.353, 0.751 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.297, 0.742 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyrell Jenkins.
0.342, 0.737 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta.
0.314, 0.733 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jered Weaver.
0.325, 0.731 — Ryan Braun batting against Cody Reed.
0.304, 0.728 — Starling Marte batting against Brett Anderson.
0.289, 0.727 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Kuhl.

That’s a very high probability for Altuve, one of the highest I’ve seen. Altuve’s 2016 hit average is currently at .319, which is amazing. He’s been on quite the tear lately, with multiple hits in four of his last six games.

The NN with park factored in changes the probabilities slightly:

0.333, 0.775 — Jose Altuve batting against Marcus Stroman.
0.360, 0.761 — Carlos Gonzalez batting against Adam Morgan.
0.355, 0.760 — DJ LeMahieu batting against Adam Morgan.
0.353, 0.757 — Charles Blackmon batting against Adam Morgan.
0.342, 0.745 — Brandon Phillips batting against Wily Peralta.
0.297, 0.744 — Daniel Murphy batting against Tyrell Jenkins.
0.314, 0.737 — Francisco Lindor batting against Jered Weaver.
0.325, 0.736 — Ryan Braun batting against Cody Reed.
0.304, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Brett Anderson.
0.289, 0.728 — Corey Seager batting against Chad Kuhl.

The consensus picks are Altuve, Blackmon, and LeMahieu. As always, your best picks will fail to get a hit 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2bufY57