Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.313 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco
0.306 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jesse Hahn
0.301 — Paulo Orlando batting against Drew Smyly
0.300 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann
0.296 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ
0.295 — Didi Gregorius batting against Bartolo Colon
0.293 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ariel Miranda
0.291 — Starling Marte batting against Tyrell Jenkins
0.288 — Brandon Phillips batting against Mike Leake
0.287 — Billy Butler batting against Ricky Nolasco

Ricky Nolasco is becoming less disliked by the Log5 method, although part of it might be he’s pitching against the Athletics.

The NN produces this list:

0.296, 0.755 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ.
0.306, 0.731 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.301, 0.728 — Paulo Orlando batting against Drew Smyly.
0.293, 0.728 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.313, 0.724 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.291, 0.720 — Starling Marte batting against Tyrell Jenkins.
0.300, 0.717 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.284, 0.714 — Mookie Betts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.268, 0.710 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.281, 0.709 — Justin Morneau batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

Altuve and Valencia flip slots here, and Bogaerts moves up as well.

The NN with the park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.296, 0.754 — Jose Altuve batting against J.A. Happ.
0.306, 0.732 — Yunel Escobar batting against Jesse Hahn.
0.313, 0.731 — Danny Valencia batting against Ricky Nolasco.
0.301, 0.729 — Paulo Orlando batting against Drew Smyly.
0.293, 0.729 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.300, 0.724 — Melky Cabrera batting against Jordan Zimmermann.
0.291, 0.724 — Starling Marte batting against Tyrell Jenkins.
0.268, 0.719 — Corey Seager batting against Tyler Chatwood.
0.284, 0.716 — Mookie Betts batting against Ariel Miranda.
0.281, 0.714 — Justin Morneau batting against Jordan Zimmermann.

The park brings Valencia back near the top. It looks like Altuve, Valencia, and Escobar are the consensus picks. There are a number of noon games today, so get your picks in early! As always, 25% of the time your best pick will take an oh for. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aUOghC