Beat the Streak Picks

Here are the top picks my programs produced for use in Beat the Streak. This post mostly explains the ideas behind the calculations. In addition, this post shows tests on the Neural Network (NN). This post discusses an NN that includes the ballpark. I recently update the models, and the results of those tests are here.

First, the Log5 Method picks:

0.335 — Robinson Cano batting against Tim Lincecum
0.322 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija
0.320 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez
0.316 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani
0.315 — Devon Travis batting against Dillon Gee
0.310 — Nelson Cruz batting against Tim Lincecum
0.306 — Kyle Seager batting against Tim Lincecum
0.301 — Jean Segura batting against Chase Anderson
0.301 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa
0.300 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jorge de la Rosa

Cano against Lincecum is the match-up of the day. Cano blows away everyone else in the log5 method.

The NN produces this top ten list:

0.320, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.322, 0.758 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.335, 0.736 — Robinson Cano batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.316, 0.735 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.291, 0.731 — Dee Gordon batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.301, 0.725 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.286, 0.724 — Paulo Orlando batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.300, 0.722 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.315, 0.720 — Devon Travis batting against Dillon Gee.
0.278, 0.719 — Xander Bogaerts batting against Scott Kazmir.

The usual suspects are at the top of the list, but Cano stil does well. The NN is more down on Jorge de la Rosa than Lincecum.

The NN with park factored in modifies the list like this:

0.320, 0.765 — Jose Altuve batting against Martin Perez.
0.322, 0.760 — Daniel Murphy batting against Jeff Samardzija.
0.316, 0.740 — Starling Marte batting against Anthony DeSclafani.
0.335, 0.739 — Robinson Cano batting against Tim Lincecum.
0.291, 0.737 — Dee Gordon batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.301, 0.734 — Martin Prado batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.300, 0.731 — J.T. Realmuto batting against Jorge de la Rosa.
0.315, 0.729 — Devon Travis batting against Dillon Gee.
0.286, 0.727 — Paulo Orlando batting against Francisco Liriano.
0.293, 0.725 — Christian Yelich batting against Jorge de la Rosa.

The Marlins get a boost with a game in Colorado. Altuve and Murphy appear to be the consensus choices, but Starling Marte and Robinson Cano rank high as well. Even your best choices will disappoint you 25% of the time. Good luck!

from baseballmusings.com http://ift.tt/2aVT6dM