The division previews conclude with the AL West. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2016, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2016. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Texas Rangers
- Position Player WAR: 18.5
- Pitcher Total: 8.8
- Core Total: 27.3
The Rangers finished 2016 with the most wins in the American League, going 95 and 67. That was 13 wins over their Pythagorean projection, which is why their core win total comes in so low. Stripping out the luck, the team does not look that good.
Jonathan Lucroy catching a full season should help. Yu Darvish staying healthy would help. Youngsters like Nomar Mazara, Jurickson Profar, and Rougned Odor maturing would help. (If standings were based on players with interesting names, the Rangers would win hands down). Just starting the season, however, their best, old player, Adrian Beltre, is injured. The Rangers will go with a four man rotation as Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner are injured.
Even with no injuries, I would expect the Rangers to win fewer games this season. The upside is that the injuries don’t get worse, the young talent develops, and they win 90 games. The downside is the injuries persist and the team finishes under .500. I would not bet on the Rangers winning the division again, let alone owning the best record in the league.
Seattle Mariners
- Position Player WAR: 28.9
- Pitcher Total: 9.5
- Core Total: 38.4
The Mariners look like the team to beat in the AL West. The offense features two veterans who are aging well in Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz, while also serving up prime players Kyle Seager and Jean Segura. It’s a strong team up the middle. Mitch Haniger posted very good numbers at AAA in 2016, and is good at getting on base. Runs should not be a problem for the Mariners.
The biggest upside should come from Felix Hernandez. The King saw his strikeouts drop and his walks rise as he battled injury, and the wall pitchers seem to hit when they turn 30. If it’s a one-year anomaly, the Mariners core should be enough to bring them a division championship.
At the back of the rotation is Ariel Miranda. Naming your child Ariel when you last name is Miranda is so literary I must stand and applaud. I don’t think Miranda will be a great pitcher in the major leagues, but he gets the fifth spot in the rotation at the height of his prime, so the Mariners will likely get his best.
The Mariners are built to win this year, and we’ll see if they can pull it off in their 40th anniversary season.
Houston Astros
- Position Player WAR: 23.2
- Pitcher Total: 9.3
- Core Total: 32.5
The Astros will contend this season, but I just love this team long term. They own a 17.4 WAR up the middle, the best in the division, and their three of those four players are in their prime or much younger. The Astros can keep moving in pieces around Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and George Springer until they find a winning combination.
The rotation has upside as Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers under-performed in 2016. Joe Musgrove makes the rotation after a minor league career with high strikeout and low walk totals. He might rank third in the rotation by the middle of the season.
The Astros should give the Mariners a run for their money.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
- Position Player WAR: 25.2
- Pitcher Total: 8.1
- Core Total: 33.3
Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun account for half the position player WAR on the Angels. That’s fine, but it makes the offense vulnerable to an injury to either player. There is not a lot of upside to the rest of the offense.
It’s the pitching staff that holds the key to the Angels season. Garrett Richards is capable of three or four WAR if he pitches the entire year. Jesse Chavez did not pitch well as a reliever in 2016, but his capable of 1.5 WAR as a starter. Tyler Skaggs should be recovered from Tommy John surgery. Six more WAR from those three pitchers, and the Angels are in the heat of the division race.
And who knows, maybe Albert Pujols has one more great season left in his bat.
Oakland Athletics
- Position Player WAR: 9.8
- Pitcher Total: 4.7
- Core Total: 14.5
The Athletics look awful on paper. I can’t find much positive to say about the position players. When the upside comes from a 25 year-old second year designated hitter (Ryon Healy), I’d say the offense isn’t that well constructed. It’s not that the players are bad, per se, but they are complementary hitters with no superstars to surround.
The entire upside of the team lies in the starting rotation, where all the pitchers are between 24 and 28 years old. That includes Sonny Gray, who starts the year on the disabled list as he continues to work back from injury. This is a no-walk staff, and not all of they strike out batters at a high rate. The position players will need to vacuum up balls in play.
Still, the core is about 20 WAR short of being in contention in an otherwise strong division. This doesn’t look like the year for the Athletics.
Probability of winning the division
- Seattle Mariners 33%
- Houston Astros 30%
- Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 25%
- Texas Rangers 10%
- Oakland Athletics 2%
This looks to be the most competitive division in the majors this season, with three teams very capable of winning the west. If the Rangers luck holds out, they may compete as well. Enjoy the season!
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