The division previews continue with the AL Central. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2016, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2016. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.
Cleveland Indians
- Position Player WAR: 27.6
- Pitcher Total: 14.8
- Core Total: 42.4
The Indians just missed winning the World Series, and instead of taking their very good team and trying again, they added a big bat in Edwin Encarnacion. His 3.9 WAR and the healthy return of Michael Brantley should make an already excellent team even better. They lead the division in both position player core WAR and pitcher core WAR. The bring four players to the game with WARs around five, and surround them with good talent. The Indians want to break their down World Series drought, and they are poised to be a power house in the division.
One thing I looked at last year for this division was strength up the middle, catcher, second base, shortstop, and centerfield. The Indians core players at those positions produced 13 WAR last year four and a half more than any other team in the division. Being strong up the middle means it is easier to find good supporting players. You can afford a good but not great bat in leftfield. Your third baseman can be a defensive wizard rather than a power hitter. It’s easier to move players in and out of the corners than find another great second baseman. I very much like this team.
Detroit Tigers
- Position Player WAR: 17.8
- Pitcher Total: 12.1
- Core Total: 29.9
The Tigers have a decent mix of youth and veterans, but it is the veterans that produced much of the WAR in 2016. Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and Justin Verlander combined for 15.9 of that 29.9 core WAR, or over half that value. When your stars are aging and your youngsters have not quite matured, and downturn can come quickly. The youngsters on the team aren’t quite that young or quite that good, so the 29.9 WAR may be a ceiling rather than a floor for this core.
Kansas City Royals
- Position Player WAR: 8.3
- Pitcher Total: 9.4
- Core Total: 17.7
The Royals core over the last three years didn’t look that great, but somehow manages to fool the pundits. The good news here is that there is plenty of upside for the team. Eric Hosmer isn’t a negative WAR player. A healthy year from Alex Gordon will increase the team’s wins. Jorge Soler playing every day means a higher WAR for him, and playing every day gives him a chance to improve more.
I also like the Soler acquisition, because he is a somewhat more selective hitter than the typical Royals batter.
The ceiling, however, looks to be even with the Tigers. That might be enough to get them in wild card contention, but they won’t be able to catch Cleveland.
Chicago White Sox
- Position Player WAR: 11.9
- Pitcher Total: 10.2
- Core Total: 23.1
Even without Chris Sale the White Sox own a good pitching rotation. If James Shields has a bounce back season, they are looking to be fairly even with Cleveland.
They will need the good pitching as the position player core looks weak. They look like they got a little younger in this area, but the youngish players don’t appear to have much upside given their minor league track records. We will see how far the pitching can carry this team.
Minnesota Twins
- Position Player WAR: 13.5
- Pitcher Total: 6.9
- Core Total: 20.4/li>
The Twins took a step back in 2016 as the youngsters who impressed in 2015 regressed a bit in 2016. Brian Dozier breaking out as a power hitting second baseman was not enough. Still I like the youth, and it’s up to Paul Molitor and his coaching staff to get them to make adjustments they might have missed in 2016. If there is to be a surprise team in this division the Twins will be it.
Probability of winning the division
- Cleveland Indians 60%
- Detroit Tigers 18%
- Minnesota Twins 10%
- Kansas City Royas 9%
- Chicago White Sox 3%
The Indians are set for a big year. This is the fourth of the five divisions examined so far that looks like a runaway. I do like the Twins to make the biggest jump this season, as the Royals are okay and the White Sox start their rebuilding phase.
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